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China may be your black swan @cha (reuters article for your...

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gypaetus

1,572 Posts.

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27/09/21

21:27

Post #: 56387027
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Originally posted by cha: ↑

great charts and thoughts Dave. i like your reference to 1929. i had actually been thinking of 2029 being similar timewise to the 1929 events and time period leading up to it
I did a lot of work on the spx post gfc.
if you overlay the historical spx and gold charts it is always a tale of two cities
if we are in a 20 year supercycle similar to the period 1982 to 2000 then spx will keep going here and gold will churn
if spx black swan - crash happens sooner rather than later then gold will respond beautifully and we will also be able to measure time and the hammer through the spx
the hammer pattern works really well on the spx on longer term scales
but i think the fed is in control and it will all be moderated
seems to be the turn of oil uranium and energy with real demand just here
cheers

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China may be your black swan @cha (reuters article for your googling pleasure chinas-power-crunch-begins-weigh-economic-outlook-2021-09-27)
increasing power rationing being blamed on high coal prices and tightening emission standards leading to factories shuttering including those that supply Apple and Tesla.

And the latest measure of the cultural revolution 2.0 (cultural revolution lite) is the banning of TV adverts for medical beauty loans - loans for cosmetic medical procedures. Consumerism is going to take a back seat and lending for "non productive" purposes is going to be curtailed, there's also rumblings that they view property development for other than shelter as being non productive and that the days of 8%+ GDP targets propped up by property development are no longer favoured.

Interesting times.

XSO Value at posting: 3,515.7
12 Upvote

3 Great analysis

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