i think your summary is spot on. aar is moving and with a low mc it has a chance to make holders some money in short term. deg large gigantic mc still an explorer but has come back to the zone where people will buy if gold macro moves. deg will be a good deal but has already run as an explorer
i hold both as longer term holdings with no expectations in shorter term
DEG is a solid explorer with genuine finds and possibly a lot more to come
It has done better than most other explorers at this stage ever. deg is enormous and genuine.
it is at the pre pre- production stage now which historically sees fade from its explorer highs unless and until production stage is reached, if ever.
I say if ever because we need to see its reserves defined along with likely capex to know if it is economically feasible to ever make money
once it is operating then we have opex along with life of mine
historically we see successful explorers like deg fade in price until those production stages are ticked off
but DEG is the real deal with grades described genuinely as bonanza
we were notified early by a few but
@Xenius comes to mind. great call from him. back then yes it proved worthwhile. now it is still a long way off and the market sharks can hammer it down where they like. they have years to play with it like they did with gor down to 60c and pex still back sub 30c from its highs
but you are right, a lot of goldies have faded to that 50% level here so it may see a bounce
if gold macro runs then all will run anyway
i like DEG enough i still have some in my long term holdings. the good ones with good grades always find a way up. they may struggle for a long time at certain levels. my trading parcel went long ago
time is the key. the time until gold runs again. the time until deg starts getting closer to production and making cash and then the time for divvies. the real multi dollar gains come in with divvies for the funds which support them. deg is so far off from there that there will be lots of opportunities on it
some like gor have great explorer results and price fell to 60c before now in production stage and is $1 plus with divvie plans. but gor is assessed now on its costs. aisc is profitable
gor has good reporting and now reports on all in corporate costs which are high and results in lower margins. good on them for reporting it clearly but the margins are tight and the share price reflects that
will deg have the same good clear management. what will their costs be. deg have over $100m in cash already. they have done enough for me to happily give them air time over the next few years but it would not surprise me to see it hammered at some stage
so quietly confident is my take on it
if we look at boe i said the same about it years ago. as it finally got closer to production we would see it moving. last year i said 2021 was its year. now finally moving but still not there yet. but this year we should see if it finally is a success or not
dyl was the same. now in fade but they really really hammered it from 50c to 10c before they let it run to 80c and now in fade again. about 60c today which is where market would have had it before it was played over
deg will be the same so i reckon you will see better opportunities on it but who knows.not many explorers hold above $1 without cash production to support them
there is lots more you can look at with deg. the substantial holders. its cr schedule. number of shares. market cap but at least you know they finally have something. deg have been years and years scrabbling around. their land is already picked over years ago but they have "new" technology in play. that is a risk for me. location is good in oz but unproven. no i think of deg as long term from here but good enough to carry some.
aar is another good prospect. it reminds me more of moy than nst or deg. but they may prove up. their resources are scattered and may prove harder to mine which in my opinion only finally did moy in. but yes aar is worth a shot from the lows if you are so minded.
at this point of time i suspect you will see more chance of short term gain in aar than deg from here but i could be wrong
deg mc is a staggering 1billion. that is unheard of for an explorer. aar is a more modest 64m and i find that first run to 100m a lot easier for explorers
i think longer term deg will do something and the only disadvantage they have now is time
pex is another with great results and still in fade mode from explorer status and years away from production.
i hope that helps Dave and i think you summarised it better already but there are just so many unknowns over the likely timeframe. also what will gold macro do this year. all are unknown and there are a lot of proven producers worth looking at if gold runs. pru nst evn agg will be ressassed on proven production from here if and when gold rerates again
cheers and thanks for the heads up cha
ps interesting spot here on our little side bet. we never agreed on timeframe. short term or longer term? all my specs are at highs here which is normally a sign for me to sell the lot and wait. they are stretched and being valued on a future which may take awhile to take place if ever this year.
ixr has run and run and run some more. on what? a promise of cash one day. asm $5 plus - spin off gift from alk both rare earths. all on china and US trade issues over rare earths. hard call from here but one thing i have learnt over the years a spike is a spike and also a bubble never lasts. cash and production are the key. anyway what was your timeframe my friend on the spx. time to nail your colours so to speak!
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