$4.50 then $6 for copper are the targets Davebut realistically no volume just now so wait and see
at $2 support when that level held it was a good bet to load up just then and it worked
at $2 support there were two things that happened. both interconnected. volume rose dramatically as the commercials stepped in and bought up big. the second thing that happened was that the copper price barely tagged $2 before it rose dramatically.
what is happening here today. what are the commercials buying today. it is not copper. copper has doubled and hit $4 and backtested and will see if it takes out old high but the money is already done on it
no the interesting thing being purchased today is the vix. gold silver copper still seeing some buying but the vix has fallen and is being bought just here as an asset class of its own. it may mean nothing though. it is tax loss selling time and the vix is a defensive buy along with the utilities
anyway back to copper -
Copper spent a lot of time at $3 before it decided to take the next level. I had expected it to pause at $3.20 - the old level - but it zoomed through which clearly opened up the next level. that move was really significant and i commented at the time it clearly indicated a decent rerate on the cards.
at $4 it paused then backtested and now we have that spike i was speaking about the other week
a spike with no volume means either more decent buyers come in for the next level or it falls back just here
there are other indicators but for me it is wait and see
next level is $4.50 and we will learn a lot from this next move. will it tag it and fall back for a few months. will it zoom through like it did at $3.20 which then brings $6 into play on this run
I would normally say no but i have found every run in the spx and gold has just kept going
retail are just buying it now and retail seem to always come in at the tail of everything
my focus now is on other asset classes - uranium silver but undecided on this quarter
It is worth noting this last run is after $US finished its cycle then gold has run and now copper. it seems to be a cycle worth noting as it keeps on repeating with 10 year bonds somewhere there in the mix.
they are all alive and all moving and a great time to be alive. 2013 and 14 were my most frustrating years as a trader with nothing moving. at least here it is all alive.
I can say one thing with copper. we have now had that rise on the monthly chart i love. that brings a risk of a spike into play and also i then look for a repeat of the cycle on the daily then weekly then monthly.
for all the hype on gold last year we ended up with 3 distinct measurable green swings up on the monthly. unprecedented.
the headwinds just here are the normal may-june tax selling. it is real and will happen so it is a good time to wait and see for a number of reasons
but I go back to that year after gfc. copper ran in the first quarter and then in may - most unusual before a massive july. - unusual unprecedented but it happened. the next year resumed normal trading. we have now had a few years of normal seasonal trading. i said a few months ago that this year is shaping as being unusual so it will be an interesting May coming up
i just can't see the risk reward benefit just here for retail. it seems safe. it is running up but to gain what. bhp back to $50 plus. high risk for what?
the real run from $16 has happened. yes hold some because over the next year or so we should see more real gains kick in but this quarter? same with ozl. yes both on track and i expect higher but would not buy in just here.
oil is interesting just here. it has completed stage 1 of the hammer. this is the point on the chart where it needs to kick on and get that massive rerate i love. i got it with gold and then copper. oil may fail here then it is time to realise it is over for another season and mark it as a fail. but will see.
volume is low on everything i follow except for the vix. the vix has come back nicely just here. it may set up the scenario this quarter a lot of goldbugs seem to be expecting with all the markets hit and then vix rises and then a flight to safety in the $US and then gold and then goldies. will see. it may just be the same normal tax loss selling we always see
goldies are rising here so i am not arguing with it.
sorry dave my comments are more rambling than ever but this is blind time for me. i find it is best to play the averages year after year - it works - this quarter may surprise to the upside but it will be unusual if it happens and we are at highs on just about everything anyway.
the specs are still rerating just here
exr from 2c last tax loss selling season of may 20 to 45c today. you can see on the chart it ran up to that 12c level i spoke of and spent a lot of time there. when it doubled to 24c it just kep going and now at that 40c plus level. cap raise now at 36c so it will not hit 60c plus that quickly but it is a joy
boe stagnant at that 12c plus level for awhile now
ivz similar - sub 2c last may 20 then slow uptrend over many months to 12c then backtest and away. tagged 20c level and now backtest again
mag from my post the other week. found support at 10c and spike yesterday to 16c on massive volume so underway again just here
the good thing with the specs is they move internally. the bad thing is they can sit for months and months between each move but always something happening
all the best and interested to see what you make of it all
your call on deg is working this run.
(20min delay)