news today rates to peak at 7% in Dec 22 and fall back to normal 2 to 3% by 2023. yes struck a note with me re cycles in market
how will market price it into the market between now and then
i found it interesting
@Pete1952 that last few years almost seem to be repeating the pattern of 1980 to 1984 that I remember from when i was young
gold spikes 1980 and 2020 - tick
oil spikes - yes
1980 to 1982 gold fell yes 2021 to date
coincides with possible multi year cup and handle in gold from 2010 still to finish with a flourish
drilling down-today announced rates to peak in dec 2022 at 7.2%. market trades 6 months ahead so is todays green in expectation of rates peaking?
i said in april 2021 that QE to end in a year and market will struggle with it. i then said in Jan 22 that by July 22 we may see market recover.
rises in house prices also in the mix 1983 and 2022
rates and house price rose post 1980
rates spiked in 1983/4 to 23.5%
what did my house price do. well i brought it in 1983 at a reasonable to high price. prices struggled for a year or so with spiking rates. it did not really affect me or my house value. the ones who failed were the developers who made headlines. sound familiar.
then in 84/5 price growth in my house resumed and doubled my money when i sold a few years later
gold price did move around in the 1980s when you get over the headlines. spx and copper also okay within a year of so of 1982 from memory so market has seen it all before. copper and spx did better than gold hence my move back into consumer stocks this year which tallied with my call on possible spike in gold prices in 2020
once (and if) gold handle plays out we may see it struggle for years. US Fed seem to have it under control
anyway new market and new times so each step is carefully reviewed as it unfolds here
green macros here not convincing but my worry is good stocks i sold on spike may rise again and i do not get set again. that is really my only worry
trading just here is volatile which I enjoy anyway
(20min delay)