The Brains Trust - 2023, page-11

PART ONE

Splitting my notes into two parts so that it will fit.  (Still too long - and have to shorten it.)

I am a bit late outlining my thoughts for the new year but unfortunately I became another Covid statistic – luckily not a dead one! I have a number of charts to include this week and hopefully by the time we work through this collection we may have a better idea of what the year holds. I should mention before I begin, that I have never known the overall views out there to be so negative.  Headlines such as this say it all.

"Economists have never been as “worried” about a recession as today."

Markets don’t usually do what everyone expects.

I did highlight one chart last week simply because I felt it was so important that everyone should be aware of the potential it was hinting at.  This chart is the daily of the FTSE.  I had sketched in a potential path for a bullish outcome of this pattern and if the market did follow this path it could be seen as an overall plus. As we can see, a week on it has not only followed what I thought was quite an optimistic line but slightly exceeded it.  Let’s see how it goes from here.


Moving back to home ground, next I have included the weekly chart of the Twenty Leaders.  There has been a lot of coverage regarding Australia’ performance through 2022 suggesting how poor it had been but that is because the overall XJO has been dragged down by some sectors.  Looking at the big stocks – where the big money tends to look for a home - we see that the XTL basically went sideways.  I have marked the beginning of each year and as we can see, there is very little overall change.
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To highlight the fact that some sectors dragged the overall index lower, the next chart is the weekly (semi-log scale) of the Technology Index.  Absolutely no doubt about the performance here.  It was terrible. Maybe we could see a reversal here this year.  Need to keep an eye on it.