PART 3
Moving back offshore, this time I am highlighting the weekly close of the S&P Index. Another instance of an overall index being dragged down by some of the new entrants – but just look at the beautiful big parallelogram the price has been locked in for the past four years. For a bullish outcome we need to see this downtrend of the past year broken. What we have to be aware of, however, is that if it does break down it will be very serious. But that downtrend looks to me as if it is calling the market to test it. We shall see.
View attachment 4962199And gold. A nice start to the new year. Once more I am including the daily close chart of gold - again semi-log scale. We looked at this chart just a few weeks ago when it was trading along that resistance line. I am absolutely amazed how the red line has been a balance point for the gold price. We are above it now, but I think it might have to pull back towards that support before it can have a serious look above 1900. An absolutely fascinating chart.
View attachment 4962202And now for some more absolute perfection - US ten-year yields. Just look where rates rallied to and then turned down sharply. As I have mentioned a number of times, I think we have probably seen the high in rates but the market will probably continue to worry about something different each day. I admit to not being relaxed – but then again, I am not really relaxed about any of the charts!
View attachment 4962205The US dollar is having a bit of a hard time at the moment trying to decide what it wants to do. Does look as though it has topped as well but may take some time to work lower. However, this chart is the Yuan against the US dollar. I am quite amazed that this market has snuck up so much. There is a story here I am sure, and one to which we need to pay close attention.
View attachment 4962208And commodities in general. This chart is the monthly of the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Note how over the past week the price has slipped below the lows of the past six months. I have drawn a dotted support line on the chart, but I have to admit that the support here looks a bit fragile. If it can’t find a footing pretty quickly then the risk of dropping back to 90 is very real.
View attachment 4962211For some time I have suggested that I would like to see a high in markets this January before the next consolidation. What we have to decide is would such a move higher represent the last hurrah.
So at the end of all of this I have decided that my theme for 2023 is
MUDDLE THROUGH. My alternative was Armageddon so you can understand why I have been studying everything so carefully. Also for the first time I think I would like to have another look at the whole big picture at the halfway mark this year.
(20min delay)