The Brains Trust - 2024, page-1365

yes it is interesting working out the triggers and how to make money on the market
there are some basic truths
1. rates are due to now fall. yes with some blips and may rise a bit or hold for longer but trend is down over the next year
which means money in the bank is now looking for growth in the market
which means the spx is rising
looking at the spx chart from 1050 to 2200 to 4400
this run from 4400 to 5500 on the short term chart is just incredible
and more volume is coming in here
where will it end i ask myself
the blue chips are boring but we get divvies and growth on this run

2. then the commods. some say this whole anti inflation push by the US Fed is designed to push commods down in price. well it is a patchy bandaid at best
once their interest rate rises are over which they will be then what is impact on commods as the $US falls

these are all basics of the market and i remain hopeful for this year and next as it unfolds. point 1 is a really basic truth of the market
i am really surprised the spx has not really fallen at all this june but not complaining at all

then we get into sequencing. whilst the spx is strong then gold seems to struggle. sometimes they go up together for a period
it reminds me of ganns work on economic cycles and the market

your eyes are far sharper than mine Paddington
you picked the 2200 on the spx to the $

the worry for me was in 2020 and whether we would see growth past the 20 year run from 2000 to 2020. once that run continued then i was not worried about each level. the trend has been up
but at some point we reach major spike territory so i am now focussed on the signs of a spike and then a correction
i just cant see it yet
perhaps i am a contrarian at heart
i really struggled with the negativity in the market for the period from 2020 and stopped posting to focus myself on the opportunities arising
now i need to be really alert for the spikes and the risks
i prefer trading from the lows.