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The Brains Trust - 2024, page-1436

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gj0201

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01/07/24

09:29

Post #: 74541992
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Originally posted by cha: ↑

end of financial year today and a good time to review what has worked and what hasn't for the year

I was pondering the success of WAF and SLR which both doubled easily from sub 80c to $1.50 in a short time with golds recent run
I liked the fa on both and bought the break on both

which of course cant help but notice the 100% rule. the 100% rule is a fundamental truth of trading on the asx for the pm plays. when they run they really run. it is fade 90% of the time but 100% is there for the taking in a very short time
It is amazing how many times profit is taken at the 100% gain mark
the key for me is trading the hammers tied with volume

you can apply the 100% rule across the board and not just to goldies

i called jbh when $36 held and then $40 was a real trigger and now at $64. another 100% in a blue chip consumer stock. safe as.

then we have wds. same story $16 held then $20 then it sat at $24 for a long time and then it ran and ran to $40. another 100%

if you drill down there have been decent moves available in the specs as well
RSG doubled. 31c low on 18.8.23 to 59c on 7.6.24
IVR 3c in dec 24 to 7c in may 24
BC8 from 18c on 16.10.23 to 36.5c on 26.5.24

the key with those is buying on the hammer and then waiting for a change in the macros or some news flow and have the discipline to sell the blessed things and move on

the midcaps have not doubled so easily. they seem to take longer for each move but i also feel safer investing in ones actually producing and earning cash and even growing to pay divvies which i suspect is the real journey for stocks
PRU $1.50 on 6.10.23 to $2.51 on 7.6.24

NST $9.90 on 3.10.23 to $16.04 on 19.4.24

ADT $2.80 on 14.12.23 to $4.89 on 20.5.24
not quite 100% gains but these midcaps take longer to play out and are mid journey anyway. pru was $1.20 not so long ago. nst $6. adt at 80c and $1.50 were both buy points

you can also learn a lot by comparing dates of lows and highs in each year

buying in the october lows and selling the april/may highs is a fairly safe approach
on average most years it works

what hasnt worked?
being impatient and panicking.
how many times have stops been triggered on a short term hammer just to see the blessed thing double from there. a painful lesson
not learning from mistakes
not looking at long term charts
losing patience for example those who sold woodside at $24 when it was stuck there for a long time and other stuff was moving
jumping from trade to trade
being impatient and buying highs
selling for a small profit just when something is starting to move and when the longer term chart says more on the table

not recognising the opportunities is a big lesson i learnt years ago.
i ran a list of commodities years ago. commodities which had not moved for years. gold silver uranium copper etc etc
and then picked the best stocks on fa in each
they have all run over the years
my mistake has been those stocks where i did not follow my plan and sold too early or did not buy or told myself i would sell and rebuy
lithium will turn up but still holding off for now

there is a cycle with the shorts
lithium is currently a heavy short. do i buy here? no
at some point demand will outmatch supply and those shorts in lithium will be covered and we will see a burst of green similar to the recent burst up in copper. do i buy here? no unless i buy just before they cover their shorts
when the shorts and covers are sorted out and it fades back to support do i buy here? well maybe. it is a pivot point and a fair chance of reasonable growth for a period of time as it runs back to its recent high and the stocks have a chance to move up to paying divvies again
copper is potentially at this point in the cycle. a recent burst of green and now in fade. $4.50 did not hold. $4.20 should see a reaction. starting to see some buying come in here. early days still

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Originally posted by snout: ↑

Good stuff @cha

Can I refer to PNR to hopefully highlight some of your insights and wisdom...when to buy, when to sell, when to know to hold for the longer term

PNR is a gold operation turnaround story. Bought @4C following cap raise..the company gets recapitalised and management appear to be executing a plan to address previous operating difficulties. Production improves and in a favourable POG environment it pops to 8c. Then the churn begins at the 100% return level where the holders are compelled to make a decision of whether to sell or hold for the possible longer wave.
After 3 months sideways, today they announce a significant debt repayment and it is up 7% and looking to breakout. This is where POG plays its part, which has also been taking the breather for a few months. If we move up from $2300 then PNR will double again to 18c; which not surprisingly is the next level of sig resistance.
One more double from there and it will be back to 40c where it spiked out 18 months ago.

That is the plan....but does not always go to plan.

That is the trouble with investing in mining operations..... finding that rare combination of competent management who have skin in the game and a profitable operation/orebody, that can be leveraged via the tailwinds of a favourable macro for the product

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Very impressive posts @cha & @snout

Both highlight the often surprising speed and value of the moves on many of the shares we discuss here. As always the buying is the "easy bit". Knowing when to sell is the tough bit.

The 100% rule that Cha mentions is worth a lot of thought; IMO ANYTHING that goes up 100% is a short time frame is certainly worth considering as a "consider sell" strategy.

FWIW I have got better in last 12 months at more rigorous stop loss selling and then timing exits. I did miss what in hindsight would have been excellent "take profit" on 2 goldies STN and SBM in last little while and watched them both pull back significantly; still holding.

Always like hearing from others on their experience/thoughts.

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