The Brains Trust - 2024, page-1437

watching woodside and oil here
if take entire long term move from $19 to its doubling to $39
we saw it retrace to fib level 1 in 2022
now it has finally been cracked down to fib level 2 where it is having a reaction
there is no volume so no real movement to follow or join in on

but it is worth watching as a lead to next moves, if any

oil and gold seem to always have a connection from the 1980 oil crisis which saw gold peak and then again now

oil had a lot of buying volume at the bottom of its june hammer
now sitting tight at $85 which is a significant longstanding level. $85 was the springboard for its run to its april high of $90 plus

there is a lot of money gathered here on oil. will it do again? well 50:50 from where i sit and will let market tell me and give me a lead

opec is quiet now
chinese pmi is unchaged for june

so i expect more churn but will see

it still seems to get back to inflation and the US Fed
we expected some volatility this year
but so far it has followed the plan led by us govt policy

inflation will drop and i expect the commods will build again leading into it

copper rose from $3.50 last year to a high of $5 plus
now pretty much at the 50% level of that run at $4.32 with perhaps a hammer to $4.20 before a real reaction but early days
again, will let market give me a lead

then we get to sequencing. if spx does pull back here finally then eventually will see gold take the lead again?

all random musings for what should be another interesting financial year