The Brains Trust - 2024, page-1660

i think you are right Paddington
recession or recessions are on the way
and all on the head of the US Fed and its cronies

spend spend spend on themselves during covid and now force everyone into recession
spend on bailing out the merchant bank Princes who led us into the gfc. rinse and repeat with covid

but the question then is what happens in a downturn

do we see a spike first? well yes that is my experience

the gold bubble of 2011 led to a falling megaphone of high volatility until the low of 2016
during that time i saw goldies like mml rise and fall repeatedly before it finally gave up

mml failed in that volatility. i suspect a lot of share portfolios did as well. so it has serious consequences

then from 2016 we have had what could be described as a rising megaphone of sorts
(i realise there are purists with their own technical spin) but the point is we are still at new ongoing highs

i expect your insights and experience will be vital to working out where we are on the curve
at this point i see higher lows and higher highs

hence my question of a few months ago - where are the expected levels for gold. 2400 was step one. it took awhile there and now through it. next level?
price and/or time?

at this time key is $US. as it rose commods fell. as US$ falls then commods rise

at some point i expect panic in the market to see money flow into $US and then into gold. then into goldies.
so really a recession and panic may see that one final burst i love. but that is pure experience and fa speaking

leading into september and possible rate fall i expect volatility as the inflation news comes out good and bad

surely with a recession looming the market will continue to price in a rate cut which benefits commods

which is my simple view of how i expect next few months to run
bhp clear last year when said copper will see a difficult year before rises in 2028. if you go back to copper pre and post 1980 spike you can see a similar pattern
but as i said i will be grateful for your view Paddington. your eyes have always been sharper than mine