The Brains Trust - 2024, page-2105

It is one of those weeks when I have so many charts clamouring to be first up. Interest rates take the prize.

Including again my chart of the weekly close of our ten-year bonds (black) and US ten-year bonds (red). As well - all those arrows across the top are when our Reserve Bank got the inclination to increase rates. But once more, just to show how out of touch these people are with what is happening out there in the real world where people are trying to earn a living, go back to the low in 2020.  Our rates got down to .76 – yes that is .76.  They didn’t increase their rate until the real market got to 3.48 – somewhat of a lag, I would suggest.  The last increase in late 2023 is the real doozy, just as rates came off their high.  Now of course the market is sitting here at a support level and believe it or not another increase is at top of mind.  Hard to believe.  Note that US rates closed at the lowest close in over a year.  My word for the year was RECESSION and they seem to be doing their very best to guarantee that is the right term.



To highlight how our short rates are trading, just look at the weekly chart of the two-year bond yield.  Just sitting on support.  I think it is heading down to the lower support which would bring this rate back to 3% or lower.