a lot of my charts reached completion in the final quarter of 2023. it took patience and identifying and following the trend and the levels dyl doubled from 70c to $1.40 and now we are at fib level 2 (or thereabouts) on retrace of that entire run at 90c. will it hold around here? that is the immediate question bhp is trying to get through the $50 level on many time frames the 1 year chart shows it best again the FOMO will be buying here?
I have hopes we may finally see my target hit this year the question is one of sell or hold just here the next question if it retraces then rebuy or are we washed up on time the bhp forecast is one of interest. copper to remain muted until 2028 and then we roar again
but add the news flow element. chinas pmi for dec 23 fell to a worse than expected 49. does that mean we sell here with iron ore about to plunge. well no we saw the opposite in dec with steep rises despite a sluggish november pmi. why? well the media pumped a chinese govt reboot of its economy which it did deliver. will we see more. I almost feel who cares. the divvies are good and buy the dips and show some patience. for the mums and dads anyway. for those seeking better returns here? well i would love a decent hammer. last quarter was brilliant.
this quarter is normally green with a spike in march or april. this year not so sure. we just had an early spike so wait and see the immediate direction it was 4th nov 2022 that strong buying volume came in which supported our market for all of 2023. it was boring most of the year until the last quarter. we finally got the buying volume coming in in Dec 23 which hopefully supports us for another full year. but it was more muted than nov 22
i feel the market has done enough in the last year to justify my question 2 years or so ago. are we in a super cycle of demand for commodities. the simple answer is US rate rises are at the end of that cycle for now so commods have some decent macro support for this year we are at highs just here so worth thinking hard - hold or sell? set stops? but not a buy at the highs? even though i feel there is more in it that is my road map just here anyway also remember years ago someone said the market has set amounts of cash which just cycle and recycle into different stocks. that was true for many years but with the advent of super funds which continue to grow and are hungry for dividends and returns for members, with population growth, with funds coming into out golden country well it is a changed macro. if there is money to be made the funds will be onto it. it is a growth area with more and more money into funds all hungry for investments. we have property being inherited and sold with the market being seen as the best opportunity for growth in a property market at a high I do not have the sharp eyes of our favourite bear for each move up and down. perhaps the stopped clock analogy works for me anyway enjoy another year of the market and spend some time with your loved ones in what i hope is a consolidation year
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