Some of the trendlines that have been formed in a number of markets are almost unbelieveable.
I will start with the S&P chart with my indicators. We nudged the beautiful uptrend here on Friday night. Not enough to say it is broken but certainly a warning. But what makes this situation even more interesting is my Geniuses at the top of the page. This group of so called “professional money managers” are not only fully invested they are
leveraged long at 104%. That certainly is a strong warning. To say they have no money left in their kitty is the understatement of the year.
View attachment 6041583And here is another beautiful uptrend – the NYSE Advance/Declines. It is certainly walking on eggshells.
View attachment 6041586And look at this one – Tokyo. The index here has pushed through this trend line by a small margin. But what a lovely well-behaved chart it has been.
View attachment 6041589Here is another good example of a lovely uptrend – our own XJO. We sold off sharply on Friday but rallied sharply when we got back to the first support level.
View attachment 6041595The point and figure chart of XJO, shows this picture nice and clearly. Have we just pulled back to the previous highs and after gathering a bit of ammunition, could we continue higher again? If we keep in mind just how vulnerable New York looks, I think I have to be very cautious looking at our market.
View attachment 6041592Last week I included the chart of XXJ. Look what it did this week. Came back on Friday to perfectly pick up the amazing uptrend and then rallied sharply. Some important trading coming up here. There is a limit to how long some of these lines can continue. Looks to be almost made to be broken.
View attachment 6041598I included the weekly chart of our Gold Index (XGD) some weeks ago. Want to highlight once more the potential of a large base pattern here. So far gold stocks and to a certain extent silver, have not enjoyed the same support as gold but I think we need to give gold a bit of time here because the rise has been so steep. I think we will ultimately get this index to break topside but it might take a bit of time. And as always, I have to see what could be sneaking up behind us, my overbought/oversold indicator on the actual gold price got to the highest level since the high in August 2020.
View attachment 6041604And now for something a bit sobering – the chart of the steel price. Back to the exact lows of 2022 and 2023. I think we might just have to close our eyes here for a bit and hope for the best. I know that is not something that we should be doing in technical analysis but goodness me this chart
is a very serious worry particularly as it is so important to the Australian economic scene.
View attachment 6041607Next another market that has been causing some pain – natural gas and here I am using the UNG fund.
The first chart goes back to the high at the beginning of last year. Just an amazing picture with the dominant downtrend in control.
View attachment 6041610When we zero in to look at the most recent trading, this market finished on a weak note again at the end of the week, but I think it might be time to start watching this closely. Looks as though it could be trying to carve out a bottom here precisely where this market found support in 2020. So a very interesting situation.
View attachment 6041613So we have UNG and steel back to longer term crucial support areas. We need to watch them this week.
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