Nice post dave.....I have taken the liberty of doodling on your BHP chart....remarkably similar chart formations if you squint a little.
Personally, I think a very exciting chart. Next longer term upleg , once it starts, will be a good one imo
View attachment 6057137
As for US/China debt...I just don't sweat sovereign debt anymore.....The US Fed and and the CCP/Central Bank of China will do whatever is required to keep all the balls in the air. They have demonstrated this repeatedly.
Have a look at those more recent plunges in your BHP chart....including the GFC and then COVID...just aberrations over the longer trend; although obviously gut wrenching if you get caught on the wrong side/timing. And BHP has essentially gone sideways for almost 20 years, the longer this travels, the closer the next re-rate. Longer term inflation implies higher commodity prices, I would say it has not been reflected in BHP's profitability and share price just yet. But I would still be comfortable holding property and BHP shares over the longer term to protect me against wealth erosion via inflation
I am not saying we can expect all smooth sailing, volatile moves are always imminent. I expect gyrations, this is where it gets tricky, particularly choosing when to exit as
@cha alluded to earlier in the week.
Personally, I believe the opportunity in the small cap commodity sector right now does not come along that often. NOT ADVICE.
Having the balls to buy when SPs have been walked down over a long period of time, confidence at all time lows, whilst being bombarded with 'bad news' is one challenge.... and then selling when you are feeling like a friggin genius is the other. I have more trouble with the latter.
(20min delay)