S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries (ASX:XSO) - The Brains Trust - 2024, 73037625, page-678 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by paddington bear: ↑

Where to start after the week we have had in markets around the world?

OK – the Dow and I am attaching to the chart a couple of other indicators. Starting with the index, just look at where it got to this week – right up to the top of the channel it has built over the last few months. Turned off this line fairly sharply.

Next is the Advance/Decline which we looked at last week when I referred to it as walking on eggshells. Again we see that it managed to hit the top of the return line but wouldn’t take much to get it back to that wonderful uptrend.

And below that the running total of the 52-week new highs and the 52-week new lows. As we can see, this line has pushed sharply higher but the uptrend here is very steep and certainly wouldn’t take much to break. So what an interesting few days coming up as we watch these fairly important trendlines.
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The other main highlight of the week was gold. I am not a great Elliott Wave fan but sometimes things just jump out of the page and can’t be dismissed. Note I have drawn two little bands with arrows. The first wave up in gold is almost exactly the height of the sharp rise last week which could complete a five-wave sequence. It has already corrected back to within the range of the fourth wave (which tends to be the minimum count from such a pattern) but I think it might have to do a bit more work. I am going to be very interested this week to gauge just how much buying power is left in gold. Still have not got silver to break topside and the same with our own gold stocks.
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When we move on to other commodities, today I am including my little chart of crude oil. Note how it broke above the neckline but ran into difficulty around 85. Looks to me as though it might need to do a bit more work now around this 80/85 level.
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But look what steel did. Last week I invented a new technical analysis term – “shut your eyes and hope for the best”. Seems to have worked as we got a reasonable bounce, but I do think we might just have to put that saying away for now. I was pretty desperate for steel to hold around that low which was the precise point reached in 2020 and 2021. But we are still going to have to watch this thing carefully.
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And again copper and in particular COPX in black. That upper resistance band goes back to the beginning of last year. I think I will go mad if some of these sideways patterns don’t soon make up their mind what they want to do. Particularly disappointing if COPX can’t break topside on this move.
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With a number of weak commodities at the end of last week, it is interesting that the ACDC – Global Battery Tech Lithium – looks a bit better. Have five clear consecutive up-days so might be ready for a correction but this pattern is definitely ‘encouraging’. What a nice word to find this morning in the commodity scene.

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And for the big picture on the commodity scene, here is the monthly chart of B.Com. Note the lovely downtrend. How much longer is this going to go on? I like this particular index because all commodities are equally weighted.
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Coming back home, BHP also continues to frustrate me. It has bounced off that 42 support but I would have liked to see it do so with a bit more gusto. But interestingly, it has almost taken in the full count of the head and shoulders top pattern formed earlier.
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When we turn to the point and figure chart of this stock, we can see very clearly how important this $42/$43 area is. Lovely downtrend channel here as well. Can BHP do it?
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Looking at the weekly chart of XMM, we can see the significance of this sideways movement in stocks like BHP. I don’t think it would take much for us to at least break that little downtrend and have another go at those tops. If it could break topside, it would give some lovely upside targets.
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For months now, the yuan has been locked to the value of the US dollar so much so that I had just about decided it was a waste of time my plotting this chart as well as being a waste of paper. Then on Friday night up popped a change. The US dollar rallied but the yuan didn’t go with it. What changed or do I just have to wait to see one more day of trading. Could be an important signal if
Friday was a valid move.
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@paddington bear Great weekly summary as always; Elliott Wave; IMO it would be good if we had a keen proponent among our BT TA crew. I'm sure you and other know the "rules" better than me. Anyone got a view on what Mr Elliott say about Gold A-B-C down?

PS I remember years ago Pre GFC when I thought I was a "clever investor" because I "bought the dips" and my "straw hats in winter" mantra ..... didnt know I had been lucky to catch the boom from the 92 recession we had to have (these days I call that an uptrend!. Anyway spent a delightful afternoon eating and drinking at Paringa Estate winery on Mornington Peninsula. I argued with one of the barmen who was a maths professor from memory and was extolling the virtues of E-W. What a load of rubbish I thought, as he advised me of a larger wave up that was very near the top and was very dangerous; turned into the GFC ..... mmmm that was the first spark of interest in TA for this little bunny .... when I learnt to go from Paringa Estate Pinot to $12 quaffers from Dan Murphy's LOL. FWIW I spent some time looking at E-W theories but does not suit me personally.