XSO 0.54% 2,904.3 s&p/asx small ordinaries

Hi PB, Good questions. Corporate tax cuts will directly help the...

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    Hi PB,

    Good questions.

    Corporate tax cuts will directly help the 1% yes, but it encourages them to invest and expand their corporations, stimulating growth and creating jobs, adding upward pressure on wages. This (fiscal policy) is needed somewhat to offset the winding back of cheap credit (monetary policy). Now the key point is, the former is far more inflationary than the latter, as it requires the investment to be income generating to capture the benefit (earn more, pay less tax). Rather than passive investment, riding the wave of forced asset inflation through lower credit prices (hence why QE was not inflationary).

    You asked who is funding the deficit. Well that will be US government creditors, or in other words, anyone buying US Gov't bonds. The US will need to (already are) auctioning off a lot of Treasuries this year to help fund Trump's polices.. What happens when these hit the market? Given how weak US bonds, in particular the long end have traded this year, I'd be surprised if enough demand stepped up to meet supply. If i'm correct, this will exert more downward pressure on bond prices, in turn putting upward pressure on interest rates.

    So we have multiple potential tailwinds for interest rates (if my suppositions are correct). Rising inflation, a more hawkish fed, and rising rate pressures from Bonds. All this against a backdrop of aggressively rising debt. Higher debt and higher interest rates = problems. The Fed simply will not be able to sustain the current path of rising rates for much longer in my view. The question becomes how can they combat inflation if they cannot raise rates? Quite the conundrum.

    So as you can see i don't just see gold rising as a function of inflationary policies alone. I see it as a function of inflation, the growing debt risk in US, and therefore the likely need to slow, stop, or reverse the current rising rate environment.
    Last edited by CaptainGrumpy: 20/04/18
 
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