OK
@CaptainGrumpy
without a proper dinner party discussion...............
If you go back to umm, what was it, the 2007/2008 tops and again in 2011 where a top was again formed, and I know patterns are in the eye of the beholder, but the 2007/2008 and again 2011 charts show a definate H&S topping pattern. Without going into details I am beginning to find H&S tops and reverse H&S patterns tend to occur at major tops or bottoms as opposed to rounding tops/bottoms which seem to indicate more shallow pullbacks (this IS NOT set in stone, and neither are chart predictions). The pattern above does not show such patterns as the 2007/2008 and to a lesser extent the 2011 patterns.
The other thing your chart shows is a major reversal H&S pattern centered around Jan 2016. If you accept this as a major multi-year turning point, which I do, and then zoom out the chart, you will see a major breakout around the $44 level (from years stretching back to 2011). You could then make an arguement that, if indeed, this IS the start of a multi-year BULL market, it makes sense that the chart could very well go back and test that level, before really taking off.
Just another alternative view, I guess.
The other big thing is this story, doing the rounds, of the rise in the US dollar, and the rise in bond yields will somehow cause difficulties in emerging markets, due to oversupply of cheap money following the GFC being wound back. Against this, I think somehow you need to take in the narrative that these economies have been growing between 4-7% per Annum, during that time, and under their own steam, and as such , maybe in a much stronger position to handle rising rates than the media gives them credit for.
Dunno!
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(20min delay)