It's tough to predict how its going to play out from here. You have a relatively small number of players who have managed to survive this brutal bear market, each with considerably different characteristics. I think the issue of sovereign risk is often overlooked by retail punters, as shown by the lithium bubble. Many get too attached to a company's resource grade/size and it's project stats then get caught holding the bag. Nevertheless, numbers are easy to read and are less subjective, allowing some of these companies to overshoot on the hype of a tasty resource.
Some of the individual upside characteristics and market caps of each of the uranium players intrigues me. You have coys like DYL sitting at around 80m market cap pre-scoping, which compared with peers is around 30-40m higher in value, and this seems to be predominantly due to the value of the management team.
VMY is a top uranium play as it ticks the most boxes. 45m market cap. Experienced management team, decent project economics, no approval risk, blue sky upside/hype from side-projects. Downside includes sales contracts, project funding and dilution risk.
PEN is another solid play who already have project set up and long term contracts. Currently, they are unable to produce at positive margins however they have entered agreements purchased uranium at fixed prices to meet contract obligations leaving no negative exposure to a rising U price. Their transition into low ph ISR is the upside, nearly every low ph ISR producer sit in the lowest cost quartile. The pressure on this transition is high, thus the pressure on the upcoming scoping study on the new low ph process is high.
DEV is a spec U play i hold as i like that management hold +30% of the register, and the location of project being in the Alligator River region under VMY and above AGE. They are widely diversified in other commodities in prime locations, however this puts pressure on cash burn/dilution.
Other honourable mentions include leader of the pack PDN. BKY, GGG, BOE, MEY.
Disc - holding VMY, PEN, DEV.
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