Originally posted by CaptainGrumpy
Just on your last point, i'm not sure that a crash in US market would result in a crash in USD, at least in the short term. So much of the artificiality generated dollar liquidity after the GFC went straight into the stockmarket, if that comes back out it will only increase demand for USD's and again at a time when dollar liquidity is tightening via QT. The only way this will change is if/when the Fed reverse course on rates, but i think they will have a hard time in the short term doing so. Have a look at PPI.
Since late 2016, Producers have been absorbing materially higher costs which they have not fully passed onto consumers, Below chart is %change YoY. so you can see how much this will be hurting margins. At some point this relationship will have to crack and costs will flow through to CPI figures. Furthermore, if you have a look at all of Trumps policies, they generally fiscally stimulative and Inflationary. Double tail wind.
So, the Fed knows that higher inflation is coming. They can't change tack yet, and to be frank i don't think Powell is the sort that will cower, even in the face of a falling stockmarket...
initially I suspect he will be a bit of a dog with a bone, even if getting pressure from Trump. So:
- Interest rates going up, (generally only in US), = rising demand for US yield instruments = increased dollar demand.
- QE hot money flowing out of stocks, EM's, commodities etc = rising dollar demand.
- Fed shrinking balance sheet (QT) = Falling dollar supply.
So in the short term, i think USD could go much higher.
That said, I doubt the Fed will be able to sustain higher rates for long due to massive sovereign debt, and also i suspect possible EM debt crisis via dollar strength if it plays out as above. I do think there will be a ceiling on rates not too far from here....maybe early-mid next year. In that env't you'll have rising inflation, lowering rate expectations, and major debt concerns. Hello gold. Talk about painting yourself into a corner.
But in the meantime, where the hell are these dollars flowing?
Short-term there will be no escaping the harshness of the USD as you've mentioned so succinctly above. All indicators are pointing to further upward pressure on the green back in the near/medium term.
PPI/CPI is an interesting topic, and boils down to your take on the narrative on the current state of the US economy. PPI has clearly been on a steady uptrend, outpacing
reported CPI and hence the conclusion that producers have been absorbing higher costs.
But is this really the case? US household indebtedness is at record highs, so if higher producer prices weren't being passed onto consumers, why are consumers having to lend more across the board? Under reporting CPI figures may explain this divergence.
The fed is now happy to keep inflation at "symmetrical" levels but once the proverbial inflationary genie is let out the bottle, it's very difficult to reign in. What will be the impact on the USD when inflation is out of control and growth is stagnant i.e. stagflation.. Albeit the fed ignores this very possibility to the point they didn't even bother stress testing for such an event.
As per the cash holding theory; and Berkshire is only one example of funds sitting on significant cash holdings. In a market deprived of value, where does the money flow???
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