Thanks
@paddington bear
Yeah, as you also mentioned in your write up,
short covering by the Commercials is one of the major positives. I don’t follow COT in all commodities but do keep an eye on oil COTs.
I was thinking of doing a write up on oil too (my last one was a year back) and will put a link in xso when I do so.
With regards to the other comment on
Elliot ramifications, yeah, that is a major positive again, if this setup holds right now.
My best understanding is that 2000-2011 bull phase is wave 1, 2011-2015 year end is wave 2 and last years rise from Jan 2016 can be start of multi year wave 3.
Then as part of above big wave 3, again, from Jan 2016 to July 2016, we have wave 1, and then deep correction from July 2016 to December 2016 is wave 2. Which brings us to wave 3 starting from Jan 2017.
Now for the wave 3 starting from Jan 2017, we would only be in
wave 1 right now, as if we are in wave 3, we would have to go much, much higher.
Now for above wave 1, we again have a wave 1 which was the early 2017 sharp rise and then wave 2 would be the deeper correction thereafter. I’m not sure if we can still consider recent falls as part of wave 2, and if we have deeper falls, then this setup could very well be negated. Alternatively, if this setup holds, then
we might soon be starting wave 3 of wave 1 of wave 3 (Starting from 2017) of wave 3 (which started in Jan 2016).
Too many waves LOL
and my head is spinning right now and I’m not 100% sure and as mentioned, I'm hardly an Elliot wave expert. Also important to note again that everything could get negated if we have deeper falls and am not already 100% sure if it is already negated.
One thing though - I was thinking around May-June that if we are to start the above 3, I'd ideally like to see some extreme capitulation which shakes gold bulls and Friday's movement / flash crash does to some extent fit that description.
As I mentioned in my post, this was my best attempt at some medium term factors that could influence gold, and I could not find too many negatives, while there seemed to be many positives. Of course one of the negatives could play up further like USD rise, Euro fall, further technical breakdown in GLD, GDX, etc. but gold bulls definitely have a lot of positives, which is as good as it could get. Don’t know how it will eventually play out and would just have to wait and see, and gold has always been exceedingly unpredictable.
Cheers
(20min delay)