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09/09/17
10:45
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Originally posted by CaptainGrumpy
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G'day Jezza. I see some of my style in that chart so thought I'd reply....Pure Technicians look away now!!
Just by way of background, until recently I was a pure Macro/FA investor, primarily in commodities. I have however over the last few years (thanks largely to this thread) come to deeply respect technical analysis and sought to learn as much as I could to supplement my trading. I think perhaps it came at a time in my life when I was less amenable to deep drawdowns and naturally started looking for ways to manage risk, beyond hedging that had been a core part of my strategy for many years. It has genuinely transformed the way I trade, albeit adding new structure to my existing strategy. Caveat- i certainly do not profess to have any skill in TA beyond what works for me.
On your Macquarie chart. I doubt you would find many pure technicians that would agree with that channel, but I like it. Would want to see your bottom trend line proven/respected next attempt, or it probably doesn't exist.... Little bit tenous with 2 hits 2 years ago. I think your horizontal line likely holds a lot more weight. To be honest everything screams sell to me, but right above multilayer support is a mugs game. Patience is required to confirm either way.
If it helps, my process in a nutshell is 1. Run a scan for charts that meet my criteria. 2. Do I see a number of charts setting up in a particular sector? 3. Does it match my macro thesis? 4.if confirmed, pick best handful of charts. 5. review FA 6. Determine strategy. 7. Use chart to determine entry and target. 8. Manage risk. 9. Journal trade. 10. Hide the wife's credit card.
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Thanks for the comments @Orwell and cap'n. Options are a great idea though how do you assure your time frames? Really just keen to expand on my pretty base knowledge of TA. Has worked for me quite well but there is clearly much to learn. Undaunted by my unloved MQG chart i will post an FMG weekly chart when i get home from work for more criticism!