Trading outlook Week starting 11/09
Permanently short on time these days so will need to keep things abbreviated. Lots has happened after a month away from the trading desk but in general my macro outlook has prevailed which is nice.
US major indices – NASDAQ has a short term pennant formation, no clear top pattern other than such an extreme run. A double top would have been nice to see – maybe we will still see one? DJIA looking less healthy. I need to spend more time looking into these charts – at the moment they seem inconclusive. Possibly suggesting 1 more run at highs before deciding what to do. What will that mean for gold? Probably a correction / retest before making the next real move?
FTSE looks to be forming a descending triangle to me. CAC40 (France) in a pretty solid downtrend since the highs in may.
USD / AUD – Wow, a big spike on Friday but retreated fr only a small gain. Will have to read up on this – must be a reason for it. It broke the last high. Implications for AUD gold producers if the AUD gains further.
XTL – At support, dipped below but didn’t close below. Any further downside and some rather larger falls come into play.
XJO – That insanity range (the current trading range) is still yet to be really broken. I’ve long debated with myself whether this is a decending triangle or simply a sideways trading range. Today I see a triangle again. If 5629 fails then larger falls come into play.
XAE – Had a bad week a few weeks ago, looking quite undecided at the moment. Most likely to see a modest correction if the XJO has larger falls.
XSO – Going parabolic since breaking out of the pennant. 2500 in reach!
XEC – The new bluechip index. Just broke out from the downtrend resistance during the week – and with conviction. No retest as of yet. 1350 looking likely as a first target.
Gold – What a run! My exposure to gold has been too limited and I missed this run – retrace please? Might be wishful thinking. What is the chance of gold moving to 1560 / 1600 over the next 3 – 4 months? Quite high IMO.
Oil – Big down day on Friday. Better read into it. That was also from resistance. I notice brent and WTI are not trading to the same pattern at the moment which is unusual – probably as a result of the hurricane knocking out refineries.
Nifty 50 / SENSEX – Has basically been tracking the uptrend support for the last month. Looking for the dip below to lead a breakdown. Â
Summary – Spec end has come to life as money flows exit majors around the world and (finally) find their way into our oversold juniors. We have seen a few breakouts but they are still getting sold into albeit to a lesser extent and the breakouts have been quite random. Some real trading theme is likely to emerge in the next week or 2 – need to be on the right side of it. The north Korea threat looming combined with global equities being at very high levels seems to be limiting potential still, and may continue to do so for some time. Caution still warranted but enjoy the good times when they appear. Increase gold exposure if it has a retest. Look for trading themes.
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