On 27
th December, I put together a few thoughts on what I thought the charts might have been anticipating for 2018 -
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/29877932/single.
So one week on – how do I feel about these ideas.
In 2017 I kept saying commodities, commodities, commodities. This year it is
COMMODITIES, COMMODITIES, COMMODITIES. Yes that loud. Seems that some of the markets have already got the message and have been moving strongly. Gold and GLD have now had
ten consecutive rises. That is getting a wee bit overdone but I will be strongly recommending gold stocks when the price does correct. Actually, gold stocks haven’t really been keeping up with gold itself this past couple of trading days, so there could be a correction around the corner. However, bear in mind that the target I gave on our Gold Index is simply the first…..
This year I expect that the massive resistance around $1400 on gold will be breached.
Aussie Dollar has already exceeded the first target I gave so obviously heading in the right direction. However, I think it is going considerably higher.
Also, I mentioned last week that I felt that I had finally worked out what the S&P might be trying to do – form an upslanting wedge. Well of course what happened on Friday to close out the year, the S&P broke down. NADAQ Composite didn’t break. However, I think we have had a very strong warning from the S&P – unless it can
immediately rally back into the uptrend, then Wall Street is in trouble.
But my Geniuses must still be seen as a very encouraging sign – they are only 69% invested. I can’t believe the market would make a serious top with so much money on the sidelines.
The one market I need to come back to is energy. Crude met my longer term target of 58 and after a small correction has pushed through to 60. However, whereas I am looking for commodities to be in focus this year, I am still very concerned about the big picture on this sector.
Just one point – in my notes, I prepared last week, in the comment on the SPX I mentioned people learning what a parabola was – should have been by the end of 2018 – obviously not 2017. Apologies for the typo.
(20min delay)