using conditional probability, i draw the following conclusions...

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19/02/18

00:42

Post #: 31144723
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Originally posted by Dazedandconfused ↑

In my reading of the blog Scott Grannis is suggesting in charts #11 & #12 the FED will be tightening because the money supply exceeds the demand [the primary reason the $US is falling] and in chart#10 he indicates the market expects only a modest amount of "tightening" from the Fed in coming years. There is an internal contradiction in that analysis ...imo.

The correlation between FED easing and the US market rising has been pretty well established.... hard to see that the reversal of FED policy will not also be reflected in how the markets now move. The counter balance has to be the Trump tax cuts and stimulus ... but so far there is no explanation provided for how the stimulus part of that is going to be funded. The future is looking like the US will be running deficits with a weak demand for UST's.... which would add increased pressure for yields to rise.

In the comments below the blog, one person points out that Grannis completely omits any reference to China... which seems very remiss. China is gradually asserting itself and will continue to be a growing competitor to $US dominance. It is an important context, I think, in forming an opinion about the health of the US and its ability to manage its growing debt.

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using conditional probability, i draw the following conclusions ....

1. the USD has finished its bottoming pattern and will now strengthen.

2. the overall push on the S&P is up. ... the latest COT is just so bullish. my guess is that the market will set up an ascending triangle, then finally break topside.

3. although long term i favour gold, the latest COT is bearish. so i expect the gold price to weaken. this doesn't mean that the price of gold stocks will weaken.

4. volatility will decrease. for the S&P to rise, the bulls first have to clamp down on volatility.

i'll be leaving this thread now, and won't be posting again. i want to concentrate on futures. i wish you all the best.

XSO Value at posting: 2,713.1
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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