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13/03/18

09:47

Post #: 31705420
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Originally posted by paddington bear ↑

When I saw the close of New York overnight, I felt that it was going to be a simple task to write my notes this morning – tech higher and the S&P coming off a bit – all looking like I would get the correction I was anticipating this week on Wall Street.

Now I should point out that any conclusions I draw about markets all relate to my analysis of my charts each day.

There are a few hints that we may have some difficulties on our hands. While the Trump moves have largely been dismissed, there are some potential signals that are worrying me.

Yes, getting the US market to behave as anticipated even though short term I am looking for a bit of a correction. But what is really worrying me is the patterns on FTSE and the DAX. These are the only two European markets that I follow closely but a quick look suggests the others fall into line. I am not happy with the attempted rally both the FTSE and the DAX have formed since the huge sell-off that echoed around world markets at the beginning of February. In fact, I think the patterns on both these markets looks decidedly bearish.

Could we now see the US market continue on its merry way (with corrections of course) but the Europeans either considerably under-perform or in fact continue in a downtrend. Even the Shanghai Index which did rally more than both the FTSE and the DAX, is causing me concern.

The XJO looks to sit somewhere in between the whole lot.

So I suspect we are going to have an “interesting” few months ahead of us as we see how the whole picture pans out. Of course there is one other alternative that we have to throw into the mix and that is that the New York market has in fact topped. Admittedly something I cannot dismiss even though behaviour since the February low has been quite encouraging.

And now something else to really worry us all – iron ore and coal. Both markets have been coming off and due for a rally but the big picture is of concern. When we get a bounce, we should have a clearer picture of the longer term outlook. Something more to ponder for now.

All feed-back welcome.

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re Iron Ore,
been updating this chart since Arrium went into VA:
Potential higher lows the last 2 years that will break out but for now a steady downtrend line holding IO prices back:
(about the only ticker I can find that follows IO without paying for a more accurate data AFAIK)

XSO Value at posting: 2,741.8
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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