using conditional probability, i draw the following conclusions ....
1. the USD has finished its bottoming pattern and will now strengthen.
2. the overall push on the S&P is up. ... the latest COT is just so bullish. my guess is that the market will set up an ascending triangle, then finally break topside.
3. although long term i favour gold, the latest COT is bearish. so i expect the gold price to weaken. this doesn't mean that the price of gold stocks will weaken.
4. volatility will decrease. for the S&P to rise, the bulls first have to clamp down on volatility.
i'll be leaving this thread now, and won't be posting again. i want to concentrate on futures. i wish you all the best.
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