88e IRR Aberdeenman from LSE Further to my IRR post today...

88e IRR Aberdeenman from LSE

Further to my IRR post today thought I would do a little more calculating.

Sorry if anyone tried to reply, been travelling up to Inverlochy Castle to spend the night

Anyway I digress.

I have to say this is rather crude, but sometimes the market can value companies rather crudely anyway.

At present, there is 492 MMBOE, from independent consultants, as per the presentation on the 88e website.

We had a very low share price due to the risks and unknowns, but now that they have reduced we are valued at around 3.8pps or a market cap of £120.65 Million.

Given the 492 MMBOE that gives a current valuation of 24.52p per barrel or 34.78 cents.

Going bak to my earlier valuations and adjusting for this figure we get:

2.5 Billion Barrels = (2.5B*0.2452)/3175B = 19.3 pps

or for 5 Billion Barrels double that to 38.6 pps.

This is not pie in the sky, this is based on current valuation, but of course other factors come into pay as well, risk etc.

But a simple extrapolation of where we are at just now gives a good idea of where we are going.

This is still within the 'worst case scenario' that DW mentioned, as it is only 34.58 cents, per barrel, and I am not plucking figures out of the air re recoverable, he has mentioned billions of barrels himself.

However the consultants may be very conservative, but somewhere between 2.5 and 5 billion recoverable is not out of the question.

This is not a ramp, the market is closed after all!

A significant rerate should be on the cards IMO.

Aberdeenman