The business as usual thread, page-119

"My insight into the company and its UK market give me great confidence to post in the manner I do."

If I recall correctly Dr, you were confidently forecasting an EBITDAW figure for FY 2016 of $180M or more back in February.

Even if the impairments and other abnormal items are excluded, I think you will agree that SGH will not get anywhere near this.

You may be right about the UK environment that SGH is operating in, but it's time to ask yourself objectively whether the conclusions you draw from your background knowledge are reasonable or likely with regard to the SGH situation.

There is not much point in saying that in the longer term you'll be proved right - SGH may not have a "longer term".


All investors make mistakes about individual companies sooner or later, even if the facts that led them to their (incorrect) beliefs turn out to be true.

My view of SGH (at it's current price) is that you need to treat it like a trip to the casino - your whole investment could be gone with a roll of the dice, or in the case of SGH - the bankers walking out on them. My opinion is that SGH management underestimate the likelihood this will happen.

I've admit I've never met any of them, but SGH management seem a bit out of their depth, and may be in a state of semi-denial about what has happened over the past year - possibly because their own personal situations have been so affected.

Also, as Grant has pointed out, they have allowed themselves to be overrun by external consultants - probably with a monthly cost north of $5M.

These things, plus what appears to be slowness to act over the cash flow situation, are what now determines the future of SGH - not the UK environment they are operating in.