the calm before the storm, page-8

Hi 249,
As for what price would be required, that is crystal ball gazing, given the extent to which SLX is tightly held. previously, on this and in another setting, I have argued that the 'free float' could be as little as 10% (<15M shares). More the point, the Top20 hold 60% of the issued shares, and those holding >100K hold considerably greater than this.

Most of the Top20 have held continuously since 1999. They weren't persuaded to sell at the all time highs of late 1999 /2000 (above $5.00).

Similarly, they didn't sell when the stock fell sharply on 12/9/01 (along with the rest of the market) - from $3.20 to $2.90.

Nor, when USEC exited from the equation and the share price fell all the way to 38c (below the initial listing close of 58c of 7 May 1998).

Indeed, SLX's journey has largely been carried out in the absence of the Top20 who have remained settled (and certainly, not stuck by escrow, or whatever else there may be) in their knowledge of, and investment in, SLX.

Intriguingly, SLX closed yesterday @3.15, and closed today @2.93.

On 9/11, SLX closed @3.20, and the next day, fell to 2.90.

If anything, SLX's journey has flatlined from 9/11 through today's close, meaning that little in the way of the upside potential associated with U has truly been added to the stock. And that's before you consider T.

Another way of saying this, the ASX has added close to 100% since 9/11. SLX has added close to zero.

SLX's technological pursuits were, however, much, much less advanced back then, and are now so much closer to being achieved, all with the same /similar number of shares on issue. No dilution of interests, there.

Progressing forward, and taking a line through 9/11, the market has either:
1.
not yet valued U as part of the future equation, or conversely, has valued U on a technological basis, but not on a partnering /commercial /strategic investment basis (ie: USEC exiting, and a new partner emerging post-DD sort of cancels out, or lends bias in favour of current upside);
2.
not yet valued T as part of the future equation, even though the SOI evaluation is now very close;
3.
not yet valued SLX's 70% holding in T (up from 30% back then);
4.
not yet valued Fiberbyte's prospective contribution going forward; and
5.
not yet valued the 2 boom /sunrise industries, being uranium /future energy, and telecommunications /IT, both of which were 'on the nose' in 2001, and both of which were arguably in severe sectoral recession at the time.

Measured in context, then, SLX is still substantially under-valued today, relative to its position back on 9/11.

Progressing forward, if SPs of $5.40 or above failed to dislodge the Top20 back in 1999/2000, then, it's doubtful that such prices would similarly dislodge them, now.

Chances are, if you were to add the change in the ASX AllOrds to SLX's current share price, you would then get to a price closer to $7.00, then to $5.00.

More the point, if both U and T are quite close, then arguably a substantial premium to the $5.40 all time high SP would be required.

Even a 30% premium there would only take you to $7.00, and a market cap of $945M. A market cap of $1.5B, however, would require (assuming all current options were exercised), a SP of $10.70.

Having regard to Seawind Pilot's estimates (US$50-100M upfront payment), this translates directly to A$0.50-A$1.00 per share, and that would be in cash(plus) backing.

The point of all this - a lot of things will occur in the next 4-6 weeks, any one or more of which could quickly translate to a dramatically higher share price.