100% correlation to wholesale electricity prices the regulator uses to set the DMO. See p15 onwards of the recent DMO report.
Liddell supplies ~10-12% of NSW energy, so your doomsday scenario has to have 10% of NSW business shut down or move offshore.
FY23-24 is largely set, we need FY25 and Calendar 25 future prices (both base and cap) to be elevated > $120 (base) for another ~10-15% price increase from FY23-24 levels (yes increase).
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