KGN 1.15% $5.15 kogan.com ltd

Commsec has PE of 212 @ 774c. Based on NPATA net profit which...

  1. 3,286 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 529
    Commsec has PE of 212 @ 774c.
    Based on NPATA net profit which excludes amortisation of Dick Smith purchase (see FY2017 report) the PE is about half that, therefore ~106.
    Revenue for recent half year (as per last two 4C’s) is growing at ~41% vs comparative period (from memory) and gross margin is expanding, therefore NPATA should be growing faster. Assuming 48% and FY dividend of 10c to simplify numbers the PEG ratio is 106/50=2.0 which is where one should stop buying for growth (doesn’t mean must sell). 1.0 is considered dirt cheap.
    Of course PEG should be based on two or three year earnings forecast, so these growth rates must be sustainable to earn the rating.
    The NPATA could easily be well North of +48% if costs etc, are contained, so pick a number.

    I have bought 17 products from Kogan in the last 12 months, about half are Kogan own brands and all have been as expected or better in terms of quality and value for money. And it’s so easy to transact. The new verticals have only just started or about to do a reckon there’s a lot more legs left in this colt.
    But yes, is a 4.5 bagger for me in 12 months, so I expecting a few bumps in the road.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add KGN (ASX) to my watchlist
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.