MCO 0.00% 11.0¢ morning star gold n.l.

the case for mco

  1. 4,542 Posts.
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    Hi All,
    I've been working a few numbers recently to figure out how MCO can get to be a $300+ mill market cap company. I think the numbers are easy to work out, what I really wanted to work out is practically what needs to happen to get those numbers.
    Looking at two peers KRM and SLR who are both +$300mill market cap. Last quarter SLR made $4mill net and KRM $10mill net so my assumption is that MCO need to get somewhere around $8mill net per quarter to have a show at a $300mill market cap.

    My numbers are as follows
    Plant = 220 tons per day
    Operating days per month = 28
    Grade = 18g/t
    Oz per month = 3918
    Margin per oz = $700
    Net per month = $2.74mill
    Net per quarter = $8.2mill

    So given that scenario give or take, what needs to happen to make that a reality
    I looked at 3 areas

    1. Plant
    2. Haulage
    3. Stoping

    To give full disclosure I did call Nick this week on this subject to validate my ideas. He gave nothing away thats not in the public domain.

    Plant
    At 10-12 tph for 20 hours per day gives the 220, the plant capacity is upgradeable by adding another Jig. Plants are designed to run 24*7 with maintenance downtime and repairs hence my 28 days per month, so in my opinion the plant is not a bottleneck to getting the required production.

    Haulage
    The upgade of the shaft/winder and capacity means that this is not a bottle neck to get the required production.

    Stoping
    This is the crux, can MCO have enough open stopes, air leg crews to sustain 220 tpd consistently. Potentially the stopes are there, Maxwells, Kenny's Burns remnants. Assuming that a good airleg crew can do 20t per shift max they will need 10 (2 person) crews stoping or 2 shifts per day with 5 crews is probably more practical, you then need to double that to cater for two rosters eg one week on one week off for example so 20 air leggers and 20 offsiders over all. Bringing in contract miners will be the way to go where their contract payment is incentive based upon tonnes produced per shift. It will be very hard to pick up 20 experienced airleggers straight away, however, my assumption is the numbers will build over the next 3-6 months as current employees are trained and they grow their workforce.
    So my conclusion is that yes, MCO can get to the ~$8mill per quarter net profit, but it will take a few months to build into this as stopes are opened additional airleggers are contracted and production processes are refined.
    For me thats what I want from my MCO investment, a clear path to growth at woods point and a 3+ bagger from here.

    ps In addition, you might want to factor in ore from ROD








 
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