1. the whole world is running out of silica sand
2. this is particularly so in China where 80% of the worlds solar panels are manufactured - even more so in Shandong province where 62% of the world's solar panels were made last year.
3. the demand for solar panels keeps rising.
4. the manufacturers there just cant get enough HP silica sand for making PV (photovoltaic glass) they need over 10 million tons per year. They are passing the added sand costs on to consumers.And demand still grows as solar panels are still getting cheaper and more efficient as the tech advances.
5. This growing demand has caused the price of HP silica sand to rise to a level to encourage more supply - and it keeps rising and should do so more- it's now at a price that makes it viable to ship it up from Australia. It can be done at a A$50-100 profit per ton for the miner if mined from near a port in WA.
6. IND now has 19 private farmland plots within economic range of WA ports ( more than all the others ASX silica sand cos put together). The major point of difference is that all IND activity will be on privately owned farmland.
7. All the other ASX silicas have a combined market cap of A$289 million -IND has only A$27 mill.
8. no other ASX silica co has a mining licence -IND does !
9.No other ASX silica cos are shipping out sand -IND is!
10. Most the other silica cos DRX VRX ASQ SUV have been around for up to 5 years and are nowhere near getting a mine licence - never mind even their environmental approvals - IND has ! (and they did it in 1.2 years! and over took all the rest). They are smarter than the others as their main guys have been in the business for years.
11.IND has an MOU order with the biggest PV glass manufacturer in Shandong for 600,000 tons pa- hopefully before Xmas that will turn into a real order. That can be a profit of around $50-100 per ton -so around A$ 30-60 million revenue for IND next year.at 2x revenue that should put IND SP way over $1.00 just to catch up with other silica sand companies.
12. And that 600,000 MOU Order order is just an initial order - the PV manufacturers in Shandong say they are short 10 million tons a year!!!
13. IND have also signed a JV to process the sand in China for the big orders (best to send it up "dirty" and benificiate it there. Thats because the big glass manufacturer JV partner can benefit together with IND from bringing in the big orders - that is just the beginning leading to other buyers becoming involved. IMO IND can-and will -do as much as the WA ports can currently handle -about 2-3mill tons per year.
14 3 mill tons a year at IMO -say @ A$ 50 per ton (after profit sharing with Shandong Hongbote) that can be A$150 million in potential revenue in under 2 years. IND stock can trade ay 3x revenue (or more as a growth story) =MC 450 mill. =6$ a share potentially??.
15. IND will have then blocked out all the main WA port facilities by the other time the otherASX cos even get near to getting mining licences and trying to ship- so they will be stuffed- and IND will be leader of the pack.
16. The others like DRX and VRX also still need to raise significant capital (A$30-70)just to get started and have their sand washed - thats even after they get their environmental and mining licences- I doubt they will get funded easily - without good port facilities , and particularly with economically unviable terms for their environmental agreements to work on crown land.
17. Based on the above IMO IND today should probably already be capped at more than all the other ASX silicas put together - if they are A$289 mill MC that should be A$4 per share for IND!!!- ok , OK, ....lets be conservative..... lets just call it $2.
I have been a long term investor in IND. Please DYOR.
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