Revenues are tracking at around U$100M pa
Margins are tracking at around U$400 per oz
production is tracking at around 80,000-85,000 pa (3 x Qs pro rata is around 83k ozpa pro rata)
U$400 x 83k = U$33.3M = A$48M pa
So FCF should continue at = A$50Mpa
ie U$7.5MpQ or A$11MpQ
Secured debt of U$4M will be easily repaid by 31 December from FCF dropping the secured debt to U$4.19M, Secured debt should be wholly paid off by 30 March
trade creditors were now down to U$19M as stated by Stern at the AGM
(thats a massive drop of 50% from U$35M from early last year)
Guidance and production are on track with no issues reported and no north wall issues either -
"The processing plant is operating at design with no major issues except normal wear and tear"
At this rate, the cashflow bullet + bullion (liquid current assets) should build from A$14.6M as at 30 Sept (minus U$8.19M secured debt & U$19M TC debt) to as at :-
-August 2019 of A$30M with $0 secured debt (paid off) & U$10M TC debt (low) to
-December 2019 of A$50Mwith $0 secured debt (paid off) & U$5M TC debt (very low)
assuming POG and AISC/margins the same.
If POG goes higher & AUD$ goes lower or AISC go lower due to higher grades then even better.
Plus there are the $1.5M cash from AGD in Dec and other royalties possible.
They will have a warchest with this cashflow bullet of A$30M mid 2019 and they will use it to :-
-drill and assay & DC drill even more (stated intention at AGM)
-acquire more near mill tenements (OC already done/likely around Omai and Ohio creek)
-expand the mill (no news yet)
-expand the smarts 3 open pit (in latest preso, looks set to double in size)
-expand hicks (already being mined now)
-build the road to Ohio Creek (in process now, planning/works underway)
-start production at Tallman/Spearpoint/Larken (planning/licensing underway)
-drill a lot lot more with the budget tripled to U$3Mpa (results every 2 weeks possible)
With this cashflow bullet building strongly,
TRY will be GREAT AGAIN!
TRY Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held