What we have to understand about China is as follows:
#1 : The CCP intends to rule China ad infinitum
To achieve this CCP wants:
(a) an internally unified China without disharmony under CCP Ideology (harmonised/unified HK Xinjiang, Tiawan, Tibet etc)
(b) harmonious relations with China's all 14 bordering neighbours & quell any threat by China's neighbours that jeopardise (a) or #1
(c) Lift the Chinese standard of living annually via domestic and export economies & with it Chinese GDP
(d) to be carbon neutral by 2060.
(e) develop/continue "Made in China 2025" & "The BRI" programs to achieve all of the above.
NB: While the USA has no clear economic plan (it laves that to big business) it has attacked China's:
-civil rights issues in HK
-civil rights for Uighur's
-civil rights of the Tibetans
-bolsted Tiawan's defence capabilities
-attacked "Made in China" 2025 elements eg: Huawei, high tech, debt loading of BRI participants
-"encouraged" other countries to not join the BRI (EG: Australia)(US implied that we'd be sacked from the US 5 eyes program if we joined the BRI)
-China trade tariffs & sanctions on CCP entities
-South China Sea islands.
Whether all or some of this is justified is beside the point, IMO: it is what it is!
But that said, the US has been the aggressor
Just imagine how the US would feel if China had fleets of nuke armed warships/aircraft carriers & subs
not to mention 24/7 armed aircraft & spy sats in the sky ready for war,
lurking in in US waters & US skies within 500K off the US mainland.
Just look at the combuction the Cuba Crisis caused in the early 60's and that is peanuts in comparison to what surrounds China now!
IMO, we have to be realistic while dealing with China and realise:
-that it is a sovereign country
-our biggest trading partner
-that it is the second biggest global economy in USD & the biggest since 2014 in GDP ( PPP )
-that at current growth rates it will be the biggest in USD by 2028
-that it is the biggest global manufacturer
-that it is the biggest global trader
-that it has the biggest middle class consumer market which is growing annually
-that at its current rate of growth, that China will replace the USA by 2050 as the global hegemon. (that is short of war, IMO)
So what should we be doing?
I don't have the answer, but we pay billions to those in Canberra to find one and at present that's not happening , IMO,
But here is a strategy (a process) that might work:
-On a diplomatic front China has provided us with a formal list of 14 greviences but we have not responded (or at best we've been kept in the dark)
The reasonable interim thing to do would be for us to formalise our greviences against China & sit down and trash them out (including the China greviences) , grevience by grievance with red lines on both sides. Items on the safe side of those red lines could be compromised and agreed to leaving only a short list the red line issues as key differences. If they ar acceptable by both sides, then we have a deal; if not , its bye-bye and total uncoupling of our respective economies.
This is how big business and presumably big bureaucracies have operated for centuries in order to lessen/moderate conflict .
This is why , IMO, Morrison is not taking this proven path, but instead, playing to the electorate to garner enough political support to win the next election & bugger Australia!
The other possibility is that he is being 2 faced:
-using megaphone to bag china
-using hid diplomatic corp to negotiate behind the scenes.
Meanwhile China has crueled barley growers, fishermen, wine makers, cotton growers, loggers/woodchippers, coal miners:
all good Lib/Nats supporters. Is Labor lying doggo to capitalise? In Machievellian Politics anything can happen but you can bet
your bottom dollar it wont benefit you!
PS: All IMO only
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