"The Celgene Put"

Looks like Celgene may not be Robinson Crusoe when their option over GVHD and Crohn's expires in October and the auction house re-opens. The bidding tension has certainly tightened given this latest announcement from Japan, and also given, of course, the late stage success announced by TiGenix a week or so ago. However, rest assured the myopic Aussie fund management industry will focus solely on the "modest" milestone payment received by MSB and roll out the usual scare stories about cash burn, Teva's supposed disinterest etc, etc. Focus on the potential downside risk, rather than the upside risk is their mantra....after all, the revenue/dividend model is the model used by all so why take a risk by getting out of step with one's competitors???
I can almost guarantee the bears will deride the fact that MSB have as good as moved to a commercial success in Japan first, (full approval is expected next month) rather than the US, completely ignoring the fact that Japan is the 2nd largest pharma market in the world. Also ignored by the herd is that management has stated on numerous occasions that it is in late stage negotiations in partnering its' Tier 1 assets, including disc repair. Instead, focus on cash burn and $A fluctuations, rather than the bigger picture!
The old chestnut that MSB's technology doesn't work has now been comprehensively buried.