the ceo has to go...., page-10

Emotion is a dangerous motive for trading.

In March 2009 when the Dow fell to 6,600 approx, there were margin calls, and liquidation of commodity funds etc but there was also just sheer mental exhaustion/ pain where people that could still afford to do the "give up trade" did it.

I am a long term holder that may have a decent tax break for years to come thanks to the sterling work of our gilt edged management team (cheers for that).

I have a fair amount of mental exhaustion looking at this share price every day but if we step back from the micro detail there are 3 broad outcomes.

1. lose our shirts.
2. rights issue- dilution by cornerstone investor
3. divine intervention

1) the way I see it I am sitting on a 95% loss, losing another 5k won't make or break me.

2) Debt for equity swap will mean our stock will be worth pesos not dollars but your children might get something, or we might get a rights issue- in utopia retail investors would get the opportunity to participate at the same price as the corporate placement but (i) do management care about retail investors (ii) would you participate?

3)anyone hoping for $1 a share again is kidding themselves-If 2) happens there is a realistic chance of $0.30-0.50 in 3 years time- if coal rebounds moderately and supply is capped.

that being said I am still hoping for divine intervention,
Taking emotions out of this

Scenario Probabilty Price in 2 years
1 50% 0
2 30% 0.30
3 20% 0.60
average outcome 0.21 cents

So buying at 5.5 cents gives a weighted average outcome of 381% profit if you are brave or stupid...(don't listen to me i just lost 95%).