The CF33, Vaxinia and Oncarlytics Deal, page-290

  1. 1,635 Posts.
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    You are white noise, @Watmighthavben

    Something all holders should be very aware of is the following journal article: https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd4035

    Basically, for pharmaceutical products, it is slightly better to be first to market than the best - timing of market entry is the major predictor of commercial success. If you are third or more in a market, then you are going to struggle to capture a significant portion of a given market. Even if you are the best drug in the market, entering second will lead to less market capture than the next best drug that entered first.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5221/5221058-c946b41b6fbd805cff94898ec210cb21.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5221/5221060-b9f0a4d65ada9c015ce136eba5d399c0.jpg

    I believe CF33 is the next HER-VAXX. HER-VAXX was a very poor me-too, that had no potential commercially. There are currently three approved oncolytic viral therapies. If it is successful, CF33 has probably another 4-years maybe before it's even considered for approval. With >100 clinical trials underway, how many more OVs will be approved? Even if none are approved, you'll be the 4th, which generates 2-8% of an already small market.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5221/5221054-609e8b4bceb8ef329de449f67e4866a9.jpg

    I believe the strategic implications of the above journal is worth careful consideration when evaluating CF33.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5221/5221053-452634aa7f528f30046580088695defd.jpg

    Last edited by Mason14: 23/04/23
 
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