Thank you for your post @Outlander2 I appreciate it.I can't...

Thank you for your post @Outlander2 I appreciate it.

I can't calculate what IMU will be worth, if indeed this happens ... but its actually quite feasible under the new FDA guidelines.

Yes, it is quite feasible Vaxinia could well be fast track approved by the FDA, as a significant breakthrough therapy. The Biden Government through their Moonshot initiative are calling on the FDA to promptly activate such therapies in the fight against cancer. Even the suggestion Imugene is seeking this designation should send shockwaves through the biotech investment community, let alone the IMU share price. IMO IMU could well rerate into the dollar’s as a result. Imugene has the experienced staff on board capable of achieving FDA product approvals, with 15 approvals already under their belt to date.

My rationale for a rocket in the IMU share price comes back not only a prospective FDA approval, but to the COVID vaccination and statistics. 70% of the worlds population received the COVID vaccination, of whom approximately two third’s of those were administered with Pfizer (i.e., 665 million people), the remaining third receiving Moderna and the vaccines. Since the beginning of the pandemic Pfizer’s market capitalisation has increased in the vicinity of 100 billion US dollars. But keep in mind although 70% of the population received a COVID vaccination, a figure far higher than those struck down by cancer (i.e., 39%), cancer is an ongoing disease, not a one off as it were. Therefore one would assume that in licensing Vaxinia, Imugene would trade at a much higher price to earnings ratio than Pfizer (i.e., 6.8), given the longevity of the drugs product runway.

Clearly Imugene requires a strong biotech partner to assist in taking Vaxinia to market, and ultimately there may be other players in the oncolytic virus space. However were we to halve and then halve again the potential revenue stream figures for Vaxinia, one would assume a conservative price to earnings ratio of 10 for such a company. Looking to Keytruda and other cancer blockbuster drugs, whose revenue Vaxinia may well surpass one day, Vaxinia potentially adds over 100 billion US dollars minimum to the IMU/partnership's market cap, given IMU's existing Vaxinia patents out to 2038-2040. That’s conservatively close to 200 times more than the current IMU share price, for those prepared to do the maths.

Irrespective of whether Yuman Fong even comes to Australia this month, based upon what we already know investors should start factoring in the impact of an FDA approval for Vaxinia. With this in mind my price target for IMU of $1.00 AUD, (i.e, less than double the IMU share price high of over 18 months ago,) seems a little under done. But I'll have investors and analysts do their own calculations on that front.

DYOR Seek investment advice as and when required Opinion only


Imugene - Set to transform cancer treatment as we know it

Nb. For those seeking parallels Merck’s (Keytruda owners) market cap is $272 billion USD. Keytruda equates to approximately 38% of Mercks current revenue.