Tonight, something different...a checklist and an interview...let's cover off the checklist first, then I have a special interview lined up for your perusal.
Just like PAR would have a checklist with all their various departments involved to piece together the additional information required by the FDA, we too should have a rough checklist for us....
What is our checklist?
All of the below are only my views, in no way does it constitute advice.....
1. Research....research research...and when you are done, more research. Learn about what you have and why it works...learn so that you will be confident with what you own. Perhaps Peter Lynch states it better than I can...
“Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing.”– Peter LynchJust because our stock price goes from strength to strength in a negative way, this means almost nothing. Has the drug changed, has management changed, is PAR changing tact or going in a wrong direction? Has PAR dropped the ball or are they working less hard? Yes there is a real disconnect between what we have and what the share price is doing. In only my view, this will not matter looking back. It will catch up one fine day and these current days of pain will be long and far behind us.
2. De risk it...weed out the negatives, no don't just ignore them, don't just blindly defend them when others here bring them up, investigate them, solve them and research them. Are they actually negatives? Can they affect us? Speak to someone that knows.
Weed out the negatives!3. Hold until the market catches up...at some point we will not only get some momentum invoking news, but others will start to hear about it, we will start appearing to people and analysts that have never heard of us, and just like we were amazed at the results and what we own, they will be too.
4. Talk to people from a wide base...Patients..Management...Analysts, Doctors, Staff, Hot Copper Researchers...heck I even know a poster on here that loves to chat to the nurse that administers iPPS to get more info about it, to seek their experience and thoughts. Read widely, not from only one source.
5. Don't invest too much to the point you can't sleep, but be confident when you have done the research and be watchful.
6. Here's another pearl of wisdom:
“It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority.”– John TempletonThe above quote could be a reference to what we do as individual investors, it could also be asked of PAR.How indeed are we doing anything different?We are researching at the base level...the science...the mechanism of action underneath....we are doing this much
before the vast majority. We are also in the fortunate and rare position of testing out our magic in parallel to the trials (SAS results while P2 was taking place). The best part is that the main race (P3) is a very similar map/race track as our P2, we just have to drive our car consistently as we have done so in the past.
How also is PAR doing anything different from the rest? Is their drug easily copied? Are they broadening the potential for multiple revenue streams? Are they taking action to mitigate risk? Are they thinking often outside the square in different ways? Are they taking their time to answer questions fully, comprehensively so that no doubt can be raised? Have they, in the past, taken the shortest most direct route to profit, to trial design? Or have they gone further than most...Pre IND...Type C, constant meetings at night AND not broaching one very large market...but two....together...plus multiple indications without spreading themselves too thinly?
7. As that Barefoot guy used to say, "Tread your own path" ...
Don't just follow someone and copy them, think for yourself as well! Sure be guided by others but finally it must make sense to you. If there is something niggling at you..something you aren't sure about...ASK in these threads, don't be shy, research and find out till you are happy....we may all learn from your questions, your points and your thoughts.
I really don't care if you have a medical background or not...ask questions...if you ask one that's been answered in the past, that's ok..we have the patience and maturity to answer or refer to an old thread, don't we? This situation has happened and new ideas and answers have been raised and discussed.
Ok Mozz, all good theories...how about this interview...what's all that about then?
I research the science...I reckon that's my forté...that's the second place ultimate claim to fame, but there is one better...and I know what is the first and foremost body of evidence that fundamentally gives me confidence to invest (not advice)...it's the patient's testimonies...I just can't beat that.
Sure it is one thing to read that we achieved observations like:
x percentage in reduction of a given OA biomarker, or
we suspect there is some binding action going on with Pentosan, or even
we have less side effects than the competition...
All well and good and interesting. But when I hear a patient could hardly walk...
...they had a poor quality of life...
.......they certainly could no longer play basketball or have a kick of the footy in the backyard with their kids.....
....AND they go from that to a complete change, being able to play golf after a 8 YEAR HIATUS....or the patient that no longer has to hold walls for support hobbling from the bedroom to the kitchen or I hear from another patient that can now scale the rocks in Sri Lanka after treatment
(you know who you are)... or perhaps someone has managed to forgo a total Knee arthroplasty operation for a number of years...well that's the evidence I need.
I talk to ex footballers..I talk to patients...I read from Happell....Yes I kinda have to separate dear Happell as he is a freak in a good way...3 years and 1 month is a freakish amount of time to have no pain from just the first series of shots and if that's not clear DMOAD evidence, not sure what is!
So with that in mind I go further. I want to push the engine of research...like this Charlie Munger quote:
“Spend each day trying to be a little wiser than you were when you woke up.”– Charlie Munger I want to wake up with new ideas, ways in which to bolster what investment I have and ensure it is de-risked and on track.... I want to hear it myself from one of the Bio Analysts that isn't new to the Bio Pharma space...he has had decades of experience. But as this 'interview wasn't formal and he didn't know I would be posting it, I can't divulge his details...but he is well known in the industry and needless to say he knows our company very well.
THE INTERVIEW
A few weeks ago I was getting a bit tired of seeing our share price slump....I know what we have...you know what we have...I know there is often a disconnect with the share price and what our company is actually doing and its future prospects. Despite it slumping, I'm in no way going to act (other than perhaps add a little here and there - not at all advice) so I thought of an idea to give a top analyst (no it wasn't
Coppo but someone of that magnitude for sure) a call to get his thoughts...here's how it went.
BA = Bio Analyst
MOZZ
Hi I'm Mozz (kinda used my real name but you get it)...Why is there a disconnect with share price and American Instos not buying in yet? They surely can do their own research and discover what we know about the molecule, how it works and the evidence to date?
BAWe are not well known, no American Instos really know about us, PAR has not had a drug out in market yet, we are a new player, there are many of these in the world, there are many mooted solutions for OA, they don't know yet which one is real and it hasn't come up on their radars just yet.MOZZ
When would it come up on their radars?
BAFrom the point of the IND opening.MOZZ
MPS Rat research reveals a lot of how the MOA works for iPPS...there was evidence on how it works with iPPS playing a direct and indirect role (Increase in vascular capacity, direct binding activities, MOA through downregulation of NGF secretions and it's amazing effect on pain reduction without causing the usual side effects of other pure blocking agents), what did you make of the research so far?
BAMore exciting than the pre clinical evidence, I was most excited by the human Phase 2 B results, that was outstanding.MOZZ
To me it's a long term hold, what is your viewpoint?
BATotally agree, I would buy on any dips, just accumulate and hold for the long term, simple. (Not advice, his exact words though)MOZZ
You are the expert, you have had a wealth of experience and know oh so many other Pharma plays both here in Aus and the USA, how does PAR stack up?
BAIt's compelling and it will be a $20 B company in the future after a few years, a Big Pharma like Novartis could just offer some $20 Billion and still walk away knowing that there are more profits to be made. Sometimes the simplest/natural based drugs are the best.DYOR
(20min delay)