Some further forecasts/commentary
Tonights Newspoll still to come.
“Rolling National Poll Roundup: 2022 Final Days
2PP Aggregate: 53.5 to Labor (-0.6 since last week) (not a prediction)
Cross-poll average of polls released in last week: 53.0 to Labor
(Weighted for time only, no house effects or quality weightings)
If the normal range of polling to result relationships applies, Labor remains very likely to win, probably outright
Historically, Labor has underperformed when it has leads in final week polling”
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/rolling-national-poll-roundup-2022.html
“A model of the upcoming 2022 Australian federal election using various inputs such as voting intention polls, leader approval polling, economic data and historical performance to model the election. We then run 100,000 simulations to forecast the election.”
https://armariuminterreta.com/projects/2022-australian-federal-election-forecast/
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