ATV 8.00% 4.6¢ activeport group ltd

the chronicale herald mine related article, page-45

  1. 172 Posts.
    Ako, not indicating 20c immediately post finance confirmation, rather a risked target to work towards, anything under that and its still cheap.

    As for SP appreciation, I do believe financing will be a big SP catalyst. I would be willing to go all in if a reasonable finance package is formalised and hence I think there would surely be others with the same thought process. If I alone were to start accumulating to double my position again, the SP would move assuming current trading volumes. I know a few other blokes who have the same plan so who knows how many are waiting for the right timing.
    With the benefit of hindsight a smart investor would have bought the minimum parcel in each entity he planned to purchase the shares with. That way once all hurdles complete, he can paticipate in a final raising, or buy big once finance formalised and announced to the market. I started buying in low 4c, foolish looking back at it. Still have cash left over to invest if attractive finance package is negotiated.

    I also understand entirely that generally developers do not begin to reach SP fair value until after full production is announced. There are so many unkowns in mining.

    However Touquoy involves such a simple mine process, there is reduced mining risk compared to some other listed miners out there, accordingly a group of investors will be willing to punt that the project will not fail due to problems with mining. Given the SP is at such low levels comparatively to fair value, SP has alot of room to move up before it gets to even half the operations fair value.

    Whilst I think a few investors will be willing to punt on the mining operation, evidently none are willing to punt on attaining funding and what proportion will be debt in this current financial market. Hence no change in SP post appropriation.

    In light of all stated, I think if a largely debt funded package is announced to the market, this will release the brakes. It will give the market an idea of what the operation will be worth per share which as I have previously stated in other posts, varies considerable depending on the debt/equity composition of the funding package.

    Also, cynical comments re appropriation SP action, whilst we expected the SP to appreciate post appropriation to an extent, we were well aware prior to the appropriation announcement that the value of each of ATV's shares was still bound by the shackles of uncertainty re funding, unfortunately this effect was quite powerful it seems..
 
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