Short sellers never took Clinuvel's fighting words about the...

Short sellers never took Clinuvel's fighting words about the share buyback seriously and have not only massively increased their open short positions but continue to manipulate and control the CUV share price constantly. This is despite average analyst PTs being $27.6, with the one analyst starting to seriously weigh Vitiligo giving a PT of over $46. And Vitiligo is not far off according to Clinuvel statements - FDA application 2026 and if successful then that will be a totally transformational event - and at these manipulated low prices the entire pipeline like Vitligo, Tanning and Stroke you can get for free along with Parkinson's, XP, VP and Neuracthel.

So the capital distribution via a Share buyback was announced with some fanfare in March (you can see everything Clinuvel said to the ASX further below) but in the following 4+ months only 50 thousand shares out of 1.5 Million have been bought back. The capital distribution of 1.5 million shares is significant to shareholders as there are only 50 Million CUV shares on issue and having 48.5 Million shares after the buyback is even better because that means less shares to spread profits amongst. Just with Vitiligo approval that is something to really think about. Assuming no shares are bought back in August then that means 1.45 Million shares need to be bought back in the 7 remaining months of the buyback. Clinuvel will need to be buying over 10 thousand shares every day which is a significant number - shorters are manipulating the price every day on extremely low volume and REAL shares being bought and deleted every single day for 7 months will have an impact. Especially if they 'front-load' the buyback a little to remove some liquidity from the market by buying back 30, 40 or 50 thousand shares on a few days early on which will also take some predictability out of just buying 10K shares every day. The very first newsletter this year Clinuvel said that just a single institution buying a large number of shares was enough to take the price over $40.

The company knows the share price is manipulated and 'decoupled' from Company value by those who 'gamble against the company'. They said this in March before anyone knew about a capital redistribution via buying back 1.5 Million shares, before mega blockbuster Parkinson's was announced, before ODDs in XP and VP, before DNA repair assistance was announced, before potential competitor Disc flunked EPP P2 trial and other potential competitor MT has to discontinue access to their trial drug, not only putting competition further away but opening up a large pool of EPP patients for Clinuvel to recruit for their FDA approved super drug and continue the growth story. So how far do they believe the 'decoupling' is now after all that?

PW makes some very weird statements and IMO this is not helping the situation, everything they said around the capital redistribution via share buyback in March was great and uplifted all shareholders and attracted a lot of investment in CUV (see below) but then a few months later in another newsletter we get some rubbish about "current period of market weakness" (when markets are at ATHs) and a statement of how the SP increased to $15 from $13.2 since the buyback was announced. To be clear the price is at $15 because that is where the short sellers want the price, without the further shorting in the days after the buyback announcement (which the company acknowledged see below) then the price would have rocketed into the mid $20s IMO. Until a fair value is restored and shorting is not the controlling factor in CUV valuation then I do not want to hear any weird statements that could be construed as misleading. Comparing without context a few P/Es, when this only involves a few profit making larger pharmas, is misleading when in a few years Vitiligo could increase Revenues 9 or 10 fold (how many already profitable mini-Pharmas can say that with an ALREADY FDA approved drug). P/Es are only part of the story, would Clinuvel care to show a forward P/E if Vitiligo gains FDA approval? That would be instructive. It can be calculated just use the figures that have been supplied: TAM mentioned $4.5 BILLION USD and 9% penetration years 1-2 giving $490 - $570 Million USD, take a guesstimate of Profits (no big pharma to share those with) and divide by 48.5 Million shares... Looks very nice and not really justifying a sub 20 P/E (taking out cash) when markets are near ATHs.

As a reminder here's what the Clinuvel board of directors said about the crazy undervaluation, and also what the company said in a recent newsletter regarding the share buyback (underline mine):

"Board of Directors view current market capitalisation as decoupled from the Company's value". PW said on the same release"Given expected earnings, underlying growth in existing and new porphyria markets, current cash reserves, and projected expenses over the next 12 months, redistribution of capital to shareholders through a buy-back program is appropriate".

"We have chosen the moment of a repurchase as first clinical results for 2024 are published, and we will keep at it until those who gamble against the Company have understood the message. Given the expected future cash flows, we are in the position to prolong the program when required, since Board and management do not believe that market value has reflected the Company's performance in recent months. To those shareholders who have proven supportive, we have waited for the right moment to strike on your behalf."

"The share buy-back further increases the relative percentage of ownership for our owners, and thereby compounds CLINUVEL'S strategy to minimise dilution.With 1,500,000 shares (or approximately 3% of the outstanding share capital) to be repurchased, we hold a longer-term view on capital management without jeopardising plans to reinvest and expand the Company."

"The first trading days after the buy-back announcement on 14 March dispelled the myth that the share price is reflective of performance only"

All IMO DYOR