CNB 0.95% 52.0¢ carnaby resources limited

The CNB 'corridor': what to hope for?

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    The share price decline has been depressing, to say the least. I'm trying to stay focused on what CNB's copper discovery might yet become so I'm interested in what others think about what Greater Duchess would have to reveal to be worthy of comparisons to other IOCG deposits in the region.

    I haven't found many good sources of information on the resource metrics of previous discoveries around Mount Isa. The PorterGeo database has some summary information on tonnage and grade for each deposit but I'm not sure how up to date it is. Anyone got any other suggestions?

    I get that IOCGs all have different characteristics that make it difficult to generalise. And that it's too early in the day at the CNB discovery to make comparisons to earlier finds. But it's got to be useful to have a sense of where Duchess might aim to sit as a meaningful discovery and what that might mean in valuation terms.

    Of the deposits in the region (from figures from 2017 in a presentation from the University of Queensland):

    Ernest Henry (220,000,000 tonnes, 1.1% cu, 0.5% au) and Swan (375,000,000, 0.4, 0.3) seem to be the daddies, with huge tonnage but lower grade.

    Starra had a mix of higher-grade/lower-grade deposits at about 30,000,000 tonnes (0.6-2.7 cu, 1.0-3.9 au). Much better gold grades than its peers.

    Eloise was high grade copper (5.5 cu, 1.4 au) but only about 3,000,000 tonnes in the deposit.

    Osborne and Kulthor had about 50,000,000 tonnes between them, (2.0/1.5 cu, 1.0 au)

    I can't find much on Trekelano, which is actually the closest deposit to CNB's holdings in Duchess.

    It's encouraging how a lot of the previous discoveries were unearthed in close proximity, which feeds hope of a 'corridor' of discoveries at Duchess.

    But the obvious question is what the tonnage and grade would need to be at Duchess to support a market cap significantly higher than the current one.

    It soon gets difficult to make estimates on capex, strip ratios and operating costs etc but presumably anything that came close to Starra or Osborne in tonnage and grade would be fantastic. What about smaller deposits, though? Any views on what the minimum tonnage would need to be (and the minimum grade) to have a business worth four or five times the current market cap?





    Last edited by hongkie: 10/06/22
 
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