Very frustrating to see false and down right lies on this thread. But enough of that. This is the rough and dirty on how i see it.
I have not been this excited on a stock since getting on board SFR at 8.5 cents all those years ago. As you can see from my username the real money is from backing quality mgt and holding on to the stock long term. Not trying to twist the stock intra day or intra month......
The below are the facts and nothing more.
The numbers at the bottom of the thread explains the sharp sell off on Monday after incorrect views caused some punters to panic and sell the stock on the open.
I will give you the rough and dirty
Australia is not core to them the main game is Morocco/Africa EH and said this at her EGM so why people so worried about the OZ farm in? They are drilling it and thats the main game.
If TPT has 5-7 projects and one of them hits 200 million barrels then with only 130 miilion shares this will more than blow through the price targets on RFC and Peel Hunt.
The well in Australia is a $30 million well plus $5m for seismic one well
Morocco $28m well $7.5m in back costs and then a contingent for any overruns to $33m
The farm out details was misunderstood as everybody thought would be drilled middle of 2014.... my gut is saying will be mid July 2013 running to the end of 2013... GALP should not have any problems securing a simple jack up rig... especially with GALP balance sheet behind them.....
They will be drilling 8 wells alone in teh neighbourhood in 2013
The 3D will be important but think market will get excited if the company can deliver some new exciting projects in Africa.
The Portugal company is the biggest company in Portugal with Euro 12bn market cap
300k barrel a day producer... this is big. Think woodside does about 80k per day?
They were involved in the biggest oil discovery off the coast of Brazil over 7 bn recoverable . Biggest oil find in last thirty years globally think they have 10%+ of that
Also involved biggest gas find off the coast of Mozambique 30TCF of gas
Both on the GALP website cold hard facts....
David Wall according to Bloomberg one of the best in OZ said this stock at current levels is a three to four bagger running into the drilling/spud. He is PVD and PCL bloke. He is very good and should be listened toooooooo
They GALP want to drill the target ASAP and is a high priority target for them... the finds above highlight how good they are.....
The below is a short comment from a Perth based broker. The details below are all wrong and is disappointing they did not even bother to check the figures with the company before flooding Perth inboxs with rubbish. Very sub standard reporting and is just a opportunity for investors big and small to get set around the mids 30s
I am holding my TPT and think the stock will deliver multiples over the next 12 months.
People just have to be patient and ignore the false statements by people trying to short the stock.
GALP are very well known in the Northern hemisphere just not in the southern hemisphere
Quality will prevail
Good luck
THE BELOW IS ALL WRONG IN RELATION TO CALCS AND TIMING. THEY GOT SOME OF THE WORDING CORRECT so give them that....
Just wanted to keep you informed on the wrong stuff going around
Australia CWH Resources (Ties to China) – WA & NT Farm in (2 permits), TPT retain 27% WI CWH operator $35m to fund Exploration to earn 70%WI. $35m - $5m seismic -$12.5m per well = $5m for 70% = $0.07m per percentage point Value to TPT = $2.0m in land value (per percentage point) + $8.0m in seismic and wells carry = $10.m 3D seismic, and drilling (1 well per permit)
Morocco Galp Energia (Galp) - 50% & operator, TPT 25% WI Galp spend $41m, which includes $7.5m in back cost to TPT, and 1 exploration well. $41m - $7.5m (back costs) -$25m for the well = $8.5m for 50% = $0.17m per percentage point Value to TPT = $4.25m in land value (per percentage point) + $6.25m in well carry = $10.5m (plus $7.5m cost recovery = ~$zero sum). Drilling Mid 2014, target 450mmbbls mean unrisked with a 21% COS Moroccan Gov 25%
Ok result for TPT from a perspective of back cost recovery and carried through exploration drilling.
Calibre of the farm-in partner is not of a quality that significant experience and value can be attributed.
Overall definitely a positive, share price should react, will retrace upon long dated drilling schedule as expected.
TPT Price at posting:
34.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
