IMO the only winners in the Ukraine war are: (a) Oil & Gas Country exporters/Multinationals (we're 50/50 our Multinational LNG exporters are making a killing and Aussie is killed at the Bowser) (b) Aluminium producers/Fertiliser exporters (c) America in LNG & Arms sales.
Europe generally and Germany specifically is being crueled.
Will this war refocus Europe in trade, and priorities ....National Security vs economic growth Who knows......IMO there will certainly be some soul searching.
I have just been in contact with some friends in Germany, Italy & the UK and the overall impression that I got is that the US (specifically the CIA) has taken them for a ride and its turning out expensive.
Will this fracture NATO?
IMO no.... but it will likely sideline the US from calling the NATO shots.
German GDP dropped in the 4th Qtr 2022 (the first Qtr after the US sabotaged NordStream 1 & 2, which has crueled German manufacture.Uncle Sam did not give Germany a choice.......just knocked off both pipe because that's what Uncle wanted.
(PS: The adjusted red line is the significant one.)
This, IMO, has driven a wedge between the US & Germany.
It took Germany 3 years to recover from the US induced GFC (Vir sind nicht amusiert !)
