IMO over time as the US weakenns economically due to debt it will likely be pushed back by a more stronger China & Russia alliance.
Lets face it, the reason for the Russian/Ukraine debacle is that Russia does not want US Nukes on its border if and when the Ukraine joins the EC & by implication NATO.
Turkey is a useful example. As soon as there were moves by Turkey to join Nato there was almost a revolution driven by a failed military coup. Since then Turkey has cut a beneficial deal with Russia involving Russian gas pipelines and assurances from Turkey that it wont join NATO or hinder the Russian warships & subs passage through the Bosporus:
IMO Europeans are conflicted about US Nukes stationed in Europe targeting Russia because on one hand they pose a threat to locals because Russia would likely Nuke these sites in a first strike while at the same time they act as a Russian expansionary deterant.
Russia wants a clear Russian owned land access coridoor to its baltic Port of Kaliningrad
IMO this is why it has interest in Belarus as well as keeping Belarus out of Nato for security reasons similar to that of the Ukraine.
Eventually the Chinese will force back the USA Nuclear installations & seabourne/airbourne Nukes from its Southern border, IMO, by positioning its own Nukes a similar distance off the US mainland and then like with trade, they'll cut a deal out of mutual interest. With the Nuclearisation of Space, terrestial launch sites will likely be obsolete within a decade IMO. and the Chinese are making rapid inroads into space already.
Even now, the prospect of a Nuke War with China/Russia on one side & the US & UK on the other is not winnable by either side and, IMO, that is why we probably have Cold War 2 starting now with the economic war curtain raiser already happening #. At this stage China's low # of Nukes and ICBMs is adequately compensated for by its coalition with Russia that even now matches the US Nuke arsnell.
Unlike Cold War 1, this one involves China which is much more industrially.economically powerful than ever the USSR was. Not alone does this mean that it has more widespread political influence due to trade, being the "factory of the world" it has the know how and economic capability to rapidly expand its Nuke arsenel but even outgun the US in delivery systems over the next decade, IMO.
This is why the world needs a Coalition for Peace reinforced by an exclusive trading compact to exclude the Nuke powers leaving them, by necessity, to trade among themselves.
# The USA has Trade Sanctions on a fair share of the Russian economy and it is ratcheting up economic sanctions on parts of the Chinese economy. At present the USA cant completely decouple from China because that would wreck an already weak US economy.The US latest attempt to economically sanction Russia was its attempt the stop the second northern Russian LNG pipeline to Germany.
All IMO only and it is based on my belief that economics trumps politics over time.
