The consequences of the Greenbushes expansion!, page-11

Clearly this is a sensitive subject.

I thought it was an interesting observation, regardless of the debate around which processing technology will win the day the facts are that Greenbushes has decided to double output, that Greensbushes has the highest head grade of all spodumene projects - at 2.4% it’s nearly 2x PLS and greater than 2x GXY and AJM, and that Greenbushes is operating. So a doubling of capacity (which is already 30% of 2016 supply) is significant as it fills a large part of the short term hole to 2020, after 2020 who knows.

All else equal, if you have a lower head grade than Greenbushes, which every other spodumene play in WA does, your costs on an LCE basis are naturally going to be higher.

I actually did say that “the brine projects are capex intensive chemistry sets”. With regards to the micas, LPD’s recent release of the PFS puts its cash cost for LCE at $0 per tonne LCE after credits – that’s scary for the higher cost producers because even if LPD is half wrong they will still slot into the lower half of the cost curve, below Greenbushes, and displace production in the top end of the cost curve.

I would have thought that the Greenbushes expansion means a significant change in the short and medium term dynamics, maybe not but I wouldn’t discount this substantial change in short terms supply as unworthy of any consideration.

I wasn’t aware that the number of posts was a pre-requisite for posting or an indicator of subject knowledge.