The Cost or Windfall from PE

I thought we needed a new thread about PE, after all it has barely been mentioned lately!!!

The discussion will be about how a PE loss or successful PE will affect the share price.

My thoughts are that PE has not been factored into the share price one way or another, not at these levels. There are many factors driving the share price that have been discussed relentlessly over the past 12 months and I do not believe PE is high on the list.

I loss of PE. I think there may be some panic selling but who is holding primarily to see a successful PE result? Silly if they are in my opinion....
Assuming some panic selling = 25% drop in price = 3.2 cents
The share price would more than likely recover from this as they get closer to production assuming nothing else goes wrong.
It is also likely to move forward as the next round of drilling in The Gambia approaches.

I successful PE will get some short term confidence back into the share price but how do you evaluate that into cents?
Just say as a best case scenario there is (at some stage) a compensation package agreed between the parties...........
FAR has a market cap of $400m or thereabouts - lets say a wildly optimistic compensation of $100m.........
You may then have to look at how that compensation money was used (new drilling, towards the $100m they still need) etc etc......
So maybe up to a 25% premium to the share price = 5.25 cents
It is also likely to move forward as the next round of drilling in The Gambia approaches.

Lets find out who gets the closest one way or another!

Disclaimer - I have not taken into account the oil price, world peace, short selling, takeover, share price manipulation, Donald Trump, Coronavirus, terrorism, corruption or any other conspiracy theories others may have!