THE COUNT DOWN: Liontown crushes first ore at Kathleen Valley!, page-34

Yeah i agree with your points too

AZS obviously has a premium added to it due to the takeover, and they most likely would be valued lower if the takeover didn't exist

In saying that though the takeover valuation for AZS makes LTR look cheap

(3.8B including 1B CAPEX - and still many years and many risks away from production, vs LTR who have already done the hard work / years of prep and valued less than AZS in that regard).


The only view we differ on is the likelihood of a takeover now. I think now is the perfect time (and a short/shortish window) for someone to make a move. Because now, with the known ramp up risks + lithium prices being where they are, it opens the opportunity for a 'lowball' takeover and taking on the risks.

If they wait for LTR to get everything right, well then its too late (like PLS, too late / too expensive for anyone).

They might be able to get it cheaper than the previous ALB offer, or anywhere around $2 (gotta be more than the last CR price).

In terms of valuation, i would guess atleast around the $4B mark. The only issue would be the stubborn director who might make it less appealing for someone to make an offer